As a Seattle resident and NBA fan I was disheartened by the unanimous decision of the relocation committee that the Kings should remain in Sacramento. My bummed state of being only deepened when I began to think of another struggling NBA franchise with an outdated Arena, but I'll get to them in a moment.
The Seattle Pilots moved to Milwaukee after one forgettable season that was later immortalized by Jim Bouton's 'Ball Four.' Forty-three years later the Brewers enjoy tremendous popularity with a fan base that, per capita, is arguably the best in baseball. Despite long stretches of futility the former Pilots have enriched the lives of Wisconsinites, if for no other reason than giving Bob Uecker a platform to entertain.
To the continued chagrin of Seattleites, in 2008 the Supersonics played their last game in the Emerald City. With the Sacramento Kings staying put it's time for Chris "Moneybags" Hansen to find another way to bring the NBA back to Seattle. This search should not take long as the Milwaukee Bucks are a great candidate to head west. Both the franchise and NBA have given the team a 2017 deadline to get a new downtown arena or they will probably leave Milwaukee. The likelihood of a new arena being constructed is a discussion in itself, but what I wonder is if the Bucks moving to Seattle would be a fair trade for the Pilots. Scratch that, the more pertinent question is if the Bucks would even be missed.
Milwaukee is a baseball town in a state ruled by the Packers. The success of Marquette and Wisconsin basketball over the past 15 years has nicely stated basketball appetite of the Badger State, and this goes without mentioning the Wisconsin football team. The sad reality of the moment is that the Bucks are expendable and a case can be made they should be donated to some basketball fans that are poor in spirit.
I'm conflicted about a potential move because part of me loves the idea of my favorite NBA team literally moving to where I live. I also believe that in the spirit of cosmic fairness an MLB for NBA trade (even one 40+ years in the making) would be an even deal. That said, should the Bucks move the NBA will never return to Milwaukee. The decade-old memories of the Bradley Center exploding with noise as Ray Allen drained threes in the playoffs against the Sixers is still fresh in my head. I also know that, as with the Brewers, all the Bucks need to be supported is become marginally successful on a consistent basis. Wisconsin sports fans are too good to be deprived a channel to demonstrated their excellence.
This is all a long way of saying that I do believe the time has come to pay the piper, but let's just say the check is in the mail.
Tuesday, April 30, 2013
Sunday, April 28, 2013
Series Recap: Dodgers take two of three from Brewers
The weekend series versus Los Angeles could have been better and it could have been worse. As it stands, only losing two out of three to the Dodgers ain't bad. Just like a bat out of hell, here are five thoughts that emerged from the weekend series.
1) Hiram Burgos is looking like a rich man's Jeff Suppan
Burgos allowed three runs in six innings Friday, striking out three and walking two. All three of the ks were of the backwards variety, and this is where the Suppan comparison comes in. In an admittedly small sample, Burgos has not been missing many bats. Hitters make contact on 88.7% of pitches he throws (Suppan was at about 86.5% in his full seasons with the Brewers). He's also been helped with a .222 BABIP, which coupled with his 4.27 FIP suggests there is a correction looming. Even so, long term I'm excited about watching Burgos develop with Milwaukee. He was good in the minors and his stuff passes the eye test. The Brewers will be well off if he pitches like a slightly better Jeff Suppan.
2) The Brewers are undefeated when Yuniesky Betancourt bats cleanup
True story: correlation always implies causation, thus Yuni should be the everyday cleanup hitter for the rest of the season. I doubt Roenicke understands this, however, so it probably won't happen.
The unlikely ascent of Betancourt from "We desperately need an infielder. Eh, you'll do" to valuable member of the lineup has been remarkable. He's earned his keep by carrying an .820 OPS into today's game and he's even looked pretty good on defense. The likelihood of this continuing is effectively zero, but he's done a tremendous job holding down the fort until Ramirez and Hart come back. There's nothing quite like catching a little lightning in a bottle.
3) Friday's loss is a perfect example of why close losses are so tough to take
The defensive value of Carlos Gomez justifies much of his new contract. He makes tough plays look routine, but for one play in the seventh inning on Friday he became an average fielder and allowed a would-be out turn into the decisive play of the game. Though it would have been a highlight reel catch, the fact remains that if you touch it you can catch it...at least this is true from a fan's perspective.
When you lose a close game it's plays like these that are played over and over again in your head. It's easy to think that the Brewers would have won had the play been made, even though that would not necessarily have been the case. Getting blown out is easier in the sense that there is no one play to dwell on. On the bright side, at least that would not have been the last out of the game.
4) Kyle Lohse brings out the best in opposing pitchers
The Brewers debut of Lohse was spoiled by Wade Miley of the Diamondbacks spinning a gem against the Crew. In his next start the Brewers' bats were rendered useless against Shelby Miller of the Cardinals. Today he was handed a tough luck loss thanks to Clayton Kershaw being his nasty self.
Bad luck aside, Lohse has been nothing but fantastic this season (except when pinch hitting with the game on the line). After his past two seasons it's a wonder he took so long to get picked up by someone. Regardless, he's pitching great and with those peripherals (2.40 FIP headed into today) his effectiveness looks here to stay.
5) The 9th inning of Saturday's game displayed the joy of white knuckle saves
Well, not really. But it did show why Jim Henderson belongs in the closers role.
Four out save things are one thing, but the elusive unofficial four out save is a different animal. The game should have ended when Carl Crawford hit a routine grounder to Yuni at third. Instead Yuni bobbled the ball and allowed AJ Ellis to come to the plate representing the winning run. To make matters more interesting, the tying run was brought into scoring position when Crawford stole second. But as he's done all season, Henderson kept his cool and induced a weak grounder to end the game (thanks to a nice play from Alex Gonzalez).
Henderson is perfect on save opportunities this season (6/6), has 14 ks in 11 innings, and only three walks. Simply put, it's hard to get hits off this guy right now. Time will tell if he's figured something out and will have long term success in the majors, or if he's another flash in the pan closer Doug Melvin his picked off the scrap heap. For now he's the closer for the Milwaukee Brewers and is doing a fine job ending games.
Axford Watch
I'll say this about Axford: He does not surrender cheap home runs. His scoreless outing streak was snapped on Saturday when he allowed a no-doubter to Andre Either to lead off the 8th inning. Axford recovered nicely to record the next three batters in order, including a swinging strikeout to Jerry Hairston Jr. to end the inning.
The homer Axford allowed was his fifth of the season, which is problematic. Fortunately it came with a three run lead, leading to a mere +.066 WPA for the Dodgers. In theory I find it acceptable to allow solo home runs with leads of three runs or greater. Most batted balls will result in outs and baserunners are what fuel comebacks. In this case Axford was down 2-0 and threw a fastball that was blasted out of the park. Of course, a single is preferred to a home run (so is an out), but if you're going to get beat at least do it throwing strikes.
Looking ahead...
The Pittsburgh Pirates are coming to Milwaukee to kickoff NL Central Week at Miller Park. Past results are not an indicator of future performance, but it's hard to ignore the 59-18 (.766) record the Brewers have versus Pittsburgh since 2008. Even more, the Bucs are a feeble 7-41 (.146) at Miller Park since 2007.
The series opens up with Wandy Rodriguez (2-0, 1.66) versus Yovani Gallardo (2-1, 4.97). On Tuesday it's James McDonald (2-2, 4.38) versus Marco Estrada (2-1, 3.86), followed by ??? versus Hiram Burgos (1-0, 3.27). Jonathan Sanchez will not be making his scheduled start on Wednesday due to a suspension for throwing at Allen Craig. This is a bad break for the Brewers as Sanchez has a 12.71 ERA and it most certainly means the Crew will face someone making their ML debut.
Giddy up.
Also...
From here out I am going to write series recaps in place of individual game recaps, unless something remarkable happens or the stakes are high. I have more to write about when reflecting on a series and I want to write about more than recaps. We'll see how this goes.
1) Hiram Burgos is looking like a rich man's Jeff Suppan
Burgos allowed three runs in six innings Friday, striking out three and walking two. All three of the ks were of the backwards variety, and this is where the Suppan comparison comes in. In an admittedly small sample, Burgos has not been missing many bats. Hitters make contact on 88.7% of pitches he throws (Suppan was at about 86.5% in his full seasons with the Brewers). He's also been helped with a .222 BABIP, which coupled with his 4.27 FIP suggests there is a correction looming. Even so, long term I'm excited about watching Burgos develop with Milwaukee. He was good in the minors and his stuff passes the eye test. The Brewers will be well off if he pitches like a slightly better Jeff Suppan.
2) The Brewers are undefeated when Yuniesky Betancourt bats cleanup
True story: correlation always implies causation, thus Yuni should be the everyday cleanup hitter for the rest of the season. I doubt Roenicke understands this, however, so it probably won't happen.
The unlikely ascent of Betancourt from "We desperately need an infielder. Eh, you'll do" to valuable member of the lineup has been remarkable. He's earned his keep by carrying an .820 OPS into today's game and he's even looked pretty good on defense. The likelihood of this continuing is effectively zero, but he's done a tremendous job holding down the fort until Ramirez and Hart come back. There's nothing quite like catching a little lightning in a bottle.
3) Friday's loss is a perfect example of why close losses are so tough to take
The defensive value of Carlos Gomez justifies much of his new contract. He makes tough plays look routine, but for one play in the seventh inning on Friday he became an average fielder and allowed a would-be out turn into the decisive play of the game. Though it would have been a highlight reel catch, the fact remains that if you touch it you can catch it...at least this is true from a fan's perspective.
When you lose a close game it's plays like these that are played over and over again in your head. It's easy to think that the Brewers would have won had the play been made, even though that would not necessarily have been the case. Getting blown out is easier in the sense that there is no one play to dwell on. On the bright side, at least that would not have been the last out of the game.
4) Kyle Lohse brings out the best in opposing pitchers
The Brewers debut of Lohse was spoiled by Wade Miley of the Diamondbacks spinning a gem against the Crew. In his next start the Brewers' bats were rendered useless against Shelby Miller of the Cardinals. Today he was handed a tough luck loss thanks to Clayton Kershaw being his nasty self.
Bad luck aside, Lohse has been nothing but fantastic this season (except when pinch hitting with the game on the line). After his past two seasons it's a wonder he took so long to get picked up by someone. Regardless, he's pitching great and with those peripherals (2.40 FIP headed into today) his effectiveness looks here to stay.
5) The 9th inning of Saturday's game displayed the joy of white knuckle saves
Well, not really. But it did show why Jim Henderson belongs in the closers role.
Four out save things are one thing, but the elusive unofficial four out save is a different animal. The game should have ended when Carl Crawford hit a routine grounder to Yuni at third. Instead Yuni bobbled the ball and allowed AJ Ellis to come to the plate representing the winning run. To make matters more interesting, the tying run was brought into scoring position when Crawford stole second. But as he's done all season, Henderson kept his cool and induced a weak grounder to end the game (thanks to a nice play from Alex Gonzalez).
Henderson is perfect on save opportunities this season (6/6), has 14 ks in 11 innings, and only three walks. Simply put, it's hard to get hits off this guy right now. Time will tell if he's figured something out and will have long term success in the majors, or if he's another flash in the pan closer Doug Melvin his picked off the scrap heap. For now he's the closer for the Milwaukee Brewers and is doing a fine job ending games.
Axford Watch
I'll say this about Axford: He does not surrender cheap home runs. His scoreless outing streak was snapped on Saturday when he allowed a no-doubter to Andre Either to lead off the 8th inning. Axford recovered nicely to record the next three batters in order, including a swinging strikeout to Jerry Hairston Jr. to end the inning.
The homer Axford allowed was his fifth of the season, which is problematic. Fortunately it came with a three run lead, leading to a mere +.066 WPA for the Dodgers. In theory I find it acceptable to allow solo home runs with leads of three runs or greater. Most batted balls will result in outs and baserunners are what fuel comebacks. In this case Axford was down 2-0 and threw a fastball that was blasted out of the park. Of course, a single is preferred to a home run (so is an out), but if you're going to get beat at least do it throwing strikes.
Looking ahead...
The Pittsburgh Pirates are coming to Milwaukee to kickoff NL Central Week at Miller Park. Past results are not an indicator of future performance, but it's hard to ignore the 59-18 (.766) record the Brewers have versus Pittsburgh since 2008. Even more, the Bucs are a feeble 7-41 (.146) at Miller Park since 2007.
The series opens up with Wandy Rodriguez (2-0, 1.66) versus Yovani Gallardo (2-1, 4.97). On Tuesday it's James McDonald (2-2, 4.38) versus Marco Estrada (2-1, 3.86), followed by ??? versus Hiram Burgos (1-0, 3.27). Jonathan Sanchez will not be making his scheduled start on Wednesday due to a suspension for throwing at Allen Craig. This is a bad break for the Brewers as Sanchez has a 12.71 ERA and it most certainly means the Crew will face someone making their ML debut.
Giddy up.
Also...
From here out I am going to write series recaps in place of individual game recaps, unless something remarkable happens or the stakes are high. I have more to write about when reflecting on a series and I want to write about more than recaps. We'll see how this goes.
Wednesday, April 24, 2013
Game Twenty: Padres 2, Brewers 1
Box Score
One of these days George Webb's prediction will again prove correct. If it all goes right we're just twelve games away from that happening.
I generally do not have much to say after the Brewers lose 2-1, and tonight is no exception. With that in mind here are a few brief thoughts on the game that ended the winning streak:
1) I have never seen a game end with a ball put in play that was never touched by the defense
Martin Maldonado came to the plate after 'Big Hit' Betancourt halved the lead with a two-out double. Maldonado then may or may not have come in contact with a weak tapper while out of the batter's box. The penalty for such a crime is an out, and in this case it ended the game in the least thrilling manner imaginable. The silver lining is that I saw something for the first time, though I tend to not enjoy these instances when the come at the expense of the Crew.
2) The bullpen did not allow a single run in the series
Tonight the three-headed monster of Mike Gonzalez, Tom Gorzelanny, and Burke Badenhop shutout the Padres and did not allow a base runner in the process. I do not believe it is too early to declare this bullpen much improved over last season.
3) Holy Moly, the Brewers need Aramis Ramirez to return
Jonathan Lucroy went 0-4 batting cleanup. In related news, the #4 spot in the order has turned into an offense black hole without Ramirez. The good news is he's expected to return during the next home stand, and the better news is the winning streak bought some time until the big guns return. Even so, sustained success will be difficult without him (and Hart) in the lineup.
Looking Ahead...
The Brewers need to win two of their next six to clinch a .500 April. What seemed impossible mere days ago now appears likely. The Brewers have an off-day tomorrow before heading to Los Angeles to face the Dodgers. Starting the series will be Hiram Burgos versus Josh Beckett.
Looking Behind...
The last time the Brewers won 12-in-a-row, this happened:
One of these days George Webb's prediction will again prove correct. If it all goes right we're just twelve games away from that happening.
I generally do not have much to say after the Brewers lose 2-1, and tonight is no exception. With that in mind here are a few brief thoughts on the game that ended the winning streak:
1) I have never seen a game end with a ball put in play that was never touched by the defense
Martin Maldonado came to the plate after 'Big Hit' Betancourt halved the lead with a two-out double. Maldonado then may or may not have come in contact with a weak tapper while out of the batter's box. The penalty for such a crime is an out, and in this case it ended the game in the least thrilling manner imaginable. The silver lining is that I saw something for the first time, though I tend to not enjoy these instances when the come at the expense of the Crew.
2) The bullpen did not allow a single run in the series
Tonight the three-headed monster of Mike Gonzalez, Tom Gorzelanny, and Burke Badenhop shutout the Padres and did not allow a base runner in the process. I do not believe it is too early to declare this bullpen much improved over last season.
3) Holy Moly, the Brewers need Aramis Ramirez to return
Jonathan Lucroy went 0-4 batting cleanup. In related news, the #4 spot in the order has turned into an offense black hole without Ramirez. The good news is he's expected to return during the next home stand, and the better news is the winning streak bought some time until the big guns return. Even so, sustained success will be difficult without him (and Hart) in the lineup.
Looking Ahead...
The Brewers need to win two of their next six to clinch a .500 April. What seemed impossible mere days ago now appears likely. The Brewers have an off-day tomorrow before heading to Los Angeles to face the Dodgers. Starting the series will be Hiram Burgos versus Josh Beckett.
Looking Behind...
The last time the Brewers won 12-in-a-row, this happened:
Tuesday, April 23, 2013
Game Nineteen: Brewers 6, Padres 3
Box Score
I worked late this evening and thus missed most of the game. I returned just in time to see Tom Gorzelanny strike out Yonder Alonso on three pitches after Gallardo walked the bases loaded with two outs. I may have not have watched most of the game, but that did not stop me from generating a few thoughts on the Brewers' 9th consecutive win.
1) Yovani Gallardo is turning the corner...sort of
Sometimes it's hard to tell if a pitcher is gritty or if it's just really, really hard to hit a baseball. Gallardo allowed 13 base runners in 6.2 innings, but prevented the Padres from getting the big hit and limited them to three runs. In this case it was probably a mix of making timely pitches, the tremendous difficulty of the sport, and the Padres being a bad baseball team. Regardless, it was Yo's second consecutive quality start and it helped the Crew win yet another baseball match.
2) Score early, not often
Of the 52 runs the Brewers have scored over their steak, 33 (63.4%) have come in the first three innings. This trend includes outbursts against Barry Zito, Matt Cain, and most recently, Clayton Richard. A lot of games will seemingly hinge on an early opportunity to deliver a knockout blow and recently the Brewers have been doing just that. And yes, this is the extent of insight I have about this trend.
Axford Watch
Another game, another scoreless outing for the Ax Man. Tonight he was aided by a gem of a defensive play from Jean Segura and his curveball showing up to play. Axford ended the 8th by abusing Nick Hundley on three pitches, using only his bender. The first two were are as sharp of breaking pitches as you'll ever see and the last pitch was perfectly placed 59 feet away from the rubber. The clean inning lowered his ERA to single digits for the first time since Opening Day
Looking ahead...
What's cooler than winning nine consecutive games? Winning ten consecutive games. Marco Estrada (4-2, 4.50) will attempt to keep the streak alive while Edinson Volquez (0-3, 8.84) will do all in his power to stop him. Unless Pre-All Star Break 2008 Volquez shows up, I like the Brewers' chances.
Go Crew.
I worked late this evening and thus missed most of the game. I returned just in time to see Tom Gorzelanny strike out Yonder Alonso on three pitches after Gallardo walked the bases loaded with two outs. I may have not have watched most of the game, but that did not stop me from generating a few thoughts on the Brewers' 9th consecutive win.
1) Yovani Gallardo is turning the corner...sort of
Sometimes it's hard to tell if a pitcher is gritty or if it's just really, really hard to hit a baseball. Gallardo allowed 13 base runners in 6.2 innings, but prevented the Padres from getting the big hit and limited them to three runs. In this case it was probably a mix of making timely pitches, the tremendous difficulty of the sport, and the Padres being a bad baseball team. Regardless, it was Yo's second consecutive quality start and it helped the Crew win yet another baseball match.
2) Score early, not often
Of the 52 runs the Brewers have scored over their steak, 33 (63.4%) have come in the first three innings. This trend includes outbursts against Barry Zito, Matt Cain, and most recently, Clayton Richard. A lot of games will seemingly hinge on an early opportunity to deliver a knockout blow and recently the Brewers have been doing just that. And yes, this is the extent of insight I have about this trend.
Axford Watch
Another game, another scoreless outing for the Ax Man. Tonight he was aided by a gem of a defensive play from Jean Segura and his curveball showing up to play. Axford ended the 8th by abusing Nick Hundley on three pitches, using only his bender. The first two were are as sharp of breaking pitches as you'll ever see and the last pitch was perfectly placed 59 feet away from the rubber. The clean inning lowered his ERA to single digits for the first time since Opening Day
Looking ahead...
What's cooler than winning nine consecutive games? Winning ten consecutive games. Marco Estrada (4-2, 4.50) will attempt to keep the streak alive while Edinson Volquez (0-3, 8.84) will do all in his power to stop him. Unless Pre-All Star Break 2008 Volquez shows up, I like the Brewers' chances.
Go Crew.
Monday, April 22, 2013
Game Eighteen: Brewers 7, Padres 1
Box Score
The Brewers have always had Jason Marquis' number and tonight was much of the same. Ryan Braun and "Timely Home Run" Betancourt went deep in the first inning to give the Crew a 5-0 lead that was never seriously threatened. Below are a few scattered thoughts on a game that extended the winning streak to eight.
1) Even the bad breaks are going well
Kyle Lohse was cruising along for five innings until he left the game early with an injury after a failed bunt attempt. The Brewers have had some unfortunate freak injuries recently, but this was a rare case of good luck with a bad break. Dislocating or even breaking a pinky on a non-throwing hand should not warrant more than a missed start or two.* Furthermore, Lohse always has the Ronnie Lott option available if he's especially averse to missing a start.
*I make this statement fully aware of the risk of speaking too soon
2) I'm not sure why Rickie Weeks was batting second over Gomez, but I assume there is a good reason
On one hand you have the reigning NL player of the week and on the other you have a guy batting .182 (now .171 after going 0-4). From an objective perspective it makes little sense to guarantee more at bats to the cold hand, and it's debatable Weeks should even play in lieu of a day off. With that said, I always assume that there are non-baseball reasons for decisions that defy numerical logic. Maybe this is a way of Roenicke showing confidence in a struggling hitter; a message that will allow other players to be relaxed during slumps. Whatever the rationale, it's helpful as a fan look at the "managing personalities" role of the manager instead of solely focusing on the specific tactics.
3) Rickie Weeks: Washed up or secret weapon?
I have serious concerns that Rickie Weeks is cooked as major league player. Then again, 2007 me had serious doubts that Rickie Weeks would develop into a legitimate major league player. As you might recall, Weeks was sent to the minors in August of 2007 after 2+ seasons of underwhelming play. After that stint on the farm Weeks finished the season in Milwaukee, hitting .273/.442/.553 with 11 homers in 197 PA. The issue, perhaps, is that Weeks is streaky to the point he makes Geoff Jenkins looks consistent. Consider some of his pre/post-all star break splits:
2007
Pre-ASB: 261 PA, .221/.328/.392
Post-ASB: 245 PA, .251/.422/.481
2011
Pre-ASB: 417 PA, .291/.391/.505
Post-ASB: 98 PA, .249/.307/.437
2012
Pre-ASB: 350 PA, .199/.314/.343
Post-ASB: 327 PA, .261/.343/.457
In each case you're looking at an OPS difference of at least 143 points. To paraphrase a quote from Jackie Brown: you can't always count on Rickie, but you can count on Rickie being Rickie. In theory this means Weeks is guaranteed to go on a tear at some point this season. If that indeed happens he'll be something of a secret weapon, having played possum with NL pitchers until unleashing a barrage of screaming line drives and moon shots. Of course, he needs to start hitting soon to justify keeping him in the lineup until this (hopefully) inevitable barrage happens.
4) For one night only, Carlos Gomez was a walking machine.
Carlos Gomez has been in the majors for seven seasons. Tonight he had his seventh career two walk game. In doing so he raised his season total by infinity, as they were his first free passes of the season.
Looking ahead...
Yovani Gallardo rebounded from a rough start and a high-profile mistake to have his best game of the season against the Giants. Tomorrow he'll face Clayton Richard, another struggling starter that righted the ship in his last outing against the powerful Rockies offense.
Let's make it nine!
Sunday, April 21, 2013
Series Recap: Brewers Sweep Cubs
Miller Park has evolved from Wrigley Field North to a house of horrors for the Cubs. Since 2011 the Cubs have won only three games in Milwaukee and this series did nothing to help their winning percentage in Wisconsin. The successful weekend came courtesy of good pitching, the Cubs making mistakes, and the Brewers taking advantage of those mistakes. With that in mind here are my three things from the sweep:
1) The starting pitching was highly encouraging
Marco Estrada was very Estrada-esque on Friday night, surrendering three runs on seven hits in six innings. The quality start neither raised not lowered his ERA, and that seems about what to expect from him. In addition to making an amazing defensive play, Estrada impressed by scrapping his way to a quality start despite struggling with his location, which is a good thing to see from your #3 starter. On the dark side, Estrada is now tied for second in the National League in home runs allowed (6) after serving up a pair. I'm not too concerned about this provided he keeps his walks down, but I'm not exactly hoping he pitches in Coors Field, either.
Saturday featured the ML debut of Hiram Burgos. He did what many pitchers making their debut have done to the Brewers, limiting the Cubs to one run over five innings. On Sunday Wily Peralta had a solid start reminiscent of his last outing versus the Cubs. Looking ahead I'm pretty excited about the upside of these two players. I'm not expecting them to develop into superstars, but I like their chances of becoming reliable members of the rotation.
2) The relief pitching was even more encouraging
Even better than three solid starts is the bullpen allowing one run in 9.1 innings. During today's broadcast it was mentioned that Roenicke wants Axford back in the closers role, but with the current late inning-set up looking formidable that seems like an unnecessary change. Jim Henderson has been nails in the closer role, Tom Gorzelanny is looking great as a set-up man, and Axford has been effective as a 7th inning holds guy. To put it another way, Roenicke should stick with what works.
3) The best days of Rickie Weeks may be behind him.
Weeks went 1-9 over the weekend, lowering his batting average to .182. This is coming after a season in which he was hitting below .200 into late July. He ended up with respectable stats after hitting .274/.354/.475 over his last 291 PA. Though late season hot streak gave reason for optimism headed into 2013 it did not cover the fact his cold streaks are getting longer and more severe. Given his slow start this season coupled with his proclivity to swing through pitches, the concern is growing that he's simply not a good hitter anymore.
Axford Watch
The Ax Man had a pair of scoreless outings this weekend, though he still has a ways to go to lower his ERA to single digits. Staying true to form, both of the outings were unsafe for people with high blood pressure. On Friday he allowed the tying run to reach scoring position before escaping the jam with a pair of swinging strikeouts. Today he came in with the tying runs on base and promptly unleashed a wild pitch that advanced them to scoring position. Even so, I found myself with a hint of confidence that Axford would be able to successfully walk the tightrope. This is a stark contrast to how I felt just one week ago.
Looking Ahead...
After four years of living in Seattle I've grown a bit weary of most Brewers games starting at 5:10 or earlier. One of life's simple pleasures is to get off work, take care of some errands, grab dinner, and then settle in for the first pitch. With the Crew playing in San Diego I'll have a rare opportunity to indulge in some regular time baseball.
This is a terrific opportunity to keep the streak alive and get Milwaukee thinking about free burgers. Starting things off will be the hot hand of Kyle Lohse versus Jason Marquis. Also of note is that Carlos Quentin will be out for the first two games due to his suspension for the Zack Greinke Incident?
Go Crew.
1) The starting pitching was highly encouraging
Marco Estrada was very Estrada-esque on Friday night, surrendering three runs on seven hits in six innings. The quality start neither raised not lowered his ERA, and that seems about what to expect from him. In addition to making an amazing defensive play, Estrada impressed by scrapping his way to a quality start despite struggling with his location, which is a good thing to see from your #3 starter. On the dark side, Estrada is now tied for second in the National League in home runs allowed (6) after serving up a pair. I'm not too concerned about this provided he keeps his walks down, but I'm not exactly hoping he pitches in Coors Field, either.
Saturday featured the ML debut of Hiram Burgos. He did what many pitchers making their debut have done to the Brewers, limiting the Cubs to one run over five innings. On Sunday Wily Peralta had a solid start reminiscent of his last outing versus the Cubs. Looking ahead I'm pretty excited about the upside of these two players. I'm not expecting them to develop into superstars, but I like their chances of becoming reliable members of the rotation.
2) The relief pitching was even more encouraging
Even better than three solid starts is the bullpen allowing one run in 9.1 innings. During today's broadcast it was mentioned that Roenicke wants Axford back in the closers role, but with the current late inning-set up looking formidable that seems like an unnecessary change. Jim Henderson has been nails in the closer role, Tom Gorzelanny is looking great as a set-up man, and Axford has been effective as a 7th inning holds guy. To put it another way, Roenicke should stick with what works.
3) The best days of Rickie Weeks may be behind him.
Weeks went 1-9 over the weekend, lowering his batting average to .182. This is coming after a season in which he was hitting below .200 into late July. He ended up with respectable stats after hitting .274/.354/.475 over his last 291 PA. Though late season hot streak gave reason for optimism headed into 2013 it did not cover the fact his cold streaks are getting longer and more severe. Given his slow start this season coupled with his proclivity to swing through pitches, the concern is growing that he's simply not a good hitter anymore.
Axford Watch
The Ax Man had a pair of scoreless outings this weekend, though he still has a ways to go to lower his ERA to single digits. Staying true to form, both of the outings were unsafe for people with high blood pressure. On Friday he allowed the tying run to reach scoring position before escaping the jam with a pair of swinging strikeouts. Today he came in with the tying runs on base and promptly unleashed a wild pitch that advanced them to scoring position. Even so, I found myself with a hint of confidence that Axford would be able to successfully walk the tightrope. This is a stark contrast to how I felt just one week ago.
Looking Ahead...
After four years of living in Seattle I've grown a bit weary of most Brewers games starting at 5:10 or earlier. One of life's simple pleasures is to get off work, take care of some errands, grab dinner, and then settle in for the first pitch. With the Crew playing in San Diego I'll have a rare opportunity to indulge in some regular time baseball.
This is a terrific opportunity to keep the streak alive and get Milwaukee thinking about free burgers. Starting things off will be the hot hand of Kyle Lohse versus Jason Marquis. Also of note is that Carlos Quentin will be out for the first two games due to his suspension for the Zack Greinke Incident?
Go Crew.
Thursday, April 18, 2013
Game Fourteen: Brewers 7, Giants 2
Box Score
Sooner or later the Brewers were going to have a relaxing day at the ballpark. They just waited for a chance to put an exclamation point on a sweep of the defending work champions to do it. If I was optimistic after a 2-8 start you can believe today's win has me reserving a spot on Wisconsin Avenue for the World Series parade. But first thing's first, here are three things that came to mind after today's victory.
1) I have no idea what I'm talking about.
Yesterday I predicted a snowman of a start for Yovani Gallardo. All things considered I was about as wrong as you can possibly be. Not only did Yo allow one run in six innings, he also hit a two-run dinger which means he effectively held the Giants to -1 run. Gallardo did all you want from a starting pitcher and then some. This was great to see, especially after the incident on early Tuesday morning. This also reminds me of a very important fact.
Professional athletes exist on a different plane than the average sports fan. High-leverage situations have a noticeable physical effect on my body. For example, I could literally feel my heart beat with excitement after Vander Blue hit the game winning layup against Davidson in the NCAA Tournament. With this in mind I would be the last person on Earth you'd want playing in a clutch situation because I would be far too nervous to do anything other than curl into a ball and weep uncontrollably. But the professional athlete is different. Situations anathema to my condition are sought out by pros, and this leads me to Gallardo.
The resident ace of the Brewers' staff is off to a horrible start and made a high profile mistake. These two crippling facts did not faze him, and in fact immediately preceded one of the most impressive starts a starting pitcher can make (home run considered). The lesson here is there is when if comes to professional athletes there is no correlation between past results, personal mishaps, and future performance. That is, unless Ruben Quevedo is pitching and the prediction is the opposition will score lots of runs.
2) John Axford: Pitching scoreless innings and it feels so good
Axford is one of my favorite players. I love him because of the note he wrote after his consecutive save streak ended, his performance in a goofy and hilarious video, and that he otherwise seems like a cool dude. At his best his spits hot fire and strikes out well over a batter an inning. At his worst he blows lots and lots of saves, but this fact is not important to the point I'm making. Though the sample size is small he looks to be turning things around. My man crush is not high enough that I believe he should become closer any time in 2013, but I like his chances of being effective in late innings going forward.
Also of note: From here on out I'm going to implement 'Axford Watch' as a means of monitoring my favorite embattled reliever.
3) This four game winning streak is a psyche-saver
I mean this from the perspective of a fan that tends to overreact to things. Being a Brewers fan means my default assumption is the playoff hopes will effectively be dashed by June.* To be sitting at 6-8 with six upcoming games versus the Cubs and Padres is very acceptable. The Brewers simply need to hold serve until Hart and Ramirez come back, at which point they will hopefully mash their way into contention. Their immediate upcoming schedule is favorable towards this goals.
Enjoyment of baseball is heavily based on hope. You can always wait until next year or hold out for the hot prospects developing on the farm. Even so, when you get off to a horrible, horrible start it gets far too easy to think to yourself "I have 150 more games of this to look forward to?" Thus, a modest win streak here and there (like this one!) can make the season more palatable.
*Since the 2006 season this has rarely been the case. The 2010 season is the only case of the Brewers being hopelessly out of contention, and even then they were only a 2012-esque late-season hot streak from getting into the October mix. All that said, the 1993-2004 seasons etched expectations into my DNA that will last as long as I live.
Looking ahead...
Word on the street is that the days of Wrigley North are over. I hope this is true. More importantly I hope the Brewers show the Cubs what it is, and how it is done. With all of the junk that's happened to start the 2013 season the Crew can still escape April with a .500 record or better. Tomorrow it's the nasty Jeff Samardzija versus Steady Marco Estrada. Soon enough will find out if a five game winning streak is too much to ask for.
Sooner or later the Brewers were going to have a relaxing day at the ballpark. They just waited for a chance to put an exclamation point on a sweep of the defending work champions to do it. If I was optimistic after a 2-8 start you can believe today's win has me reserving a spot on Wisconsin Avenue for the World Series parade. But first thing's first, here are three things that came to mind after today's victory.
1) I have no idea what I'm talking about.
Yesterday I predicted a snowman of a start for Yovani Gallardo. All things considered I was about as wrong as you can possibly be. Not only did Yo allow one run in six innings, he also hit a two-run dinger which means he effectively held the Giants to -1 run. Gallardo did all you want from a starting pitcher and then some. This was great to see, especially after the incident on early Tuesday morning. This also reminds me of a very important fact.
Professional athletes exist on a different plane than the average sports fan. High-leverage situations have a noticeable physical effect on my body. For example, I could literally feel my heart beat with excitement after Vander Blue hit the game winning layup against Davidson in the NCAA Tournament. With this in mind I would be the last person on Earth you'd want playing in a clutch situation because I would be far too nervous to do anything other than curl into a ball and weep uncontrollably. But the professional athlete is different. Situations anathema to my condition are sought out by pros, and this leads me to Gallardo.
The resident ace of the Brewers' staff is off to a horrible start and made a high profile mistake. These two crippling facts did not faze him, and in fact immediately preceded one of the most impressive starts a starting pitcher can make (home run considered). The lesson here is there is when if comes to professional athletes there is no correlation between past results, personal mishaps, and future performance. That is, unless Ruben Quevedo is pitching and the prediction is the opposition will score lots of runs.
2) John Axford: Pitching scoreless innings and it feels so good
Axford is one of my favorite players. I love him because of the note he wrote after his consecutive save streak ended, his performance in a goofy and hilarious video, and that he otherwise seems like a cool dude. At his best his spits hot fire and strikes out well over a batter an inning. At his worst he blows lots and lots of saves, but this fact is not important to the point I'm making. Though the sample size is small he looks to be turning things around. My man crush is not high enough that I believe he should become closer any time in 2013, but I like his chances of being effective in late innings going forward.
Also of note: From here on out I'm going to implement 'Axford Watch' as a means of monitoring my favorite embattled reliever.
3) This four game winning streak is a psyche-saver
I mean this from the perspective of a fan that tends to overreact to things. Being a Brewers fan means my default assumption is the playoff hopes will effectively be dashed by June.* To be sitting at 6-8 with six upcoming games versus the Cubs and Padres is very acceptable. The Brewers simply need to hold serve until Hart and Ramirez come back, at which point they will hopefully mash their way into contention. Their immediate upcoming schedule is favorable towards this goals.
Enjoyment of baseball is heavily based on hope. You can always wait until next year or hold out for the hot prospects developing on the farm. Even so, when you get off to a horrible, horrible start it gets far too easy to think to yourself "I have 150 more games of this to look forward to?" Thus, a modest win streak here and there (like this one!) can make the season more palatable.
*Since the 2006 season this has rarely been the case. The 2010 season is the only case of the Brewers being hopelessly out of contention, and even then they were only a 2012-esque late-season hot streak from getting into the October mix. All that said, the 1993-2004 seasons etched expectations into my DNA that will last as long as I live.
Looking ahead...
Word on the street is that the days of Wrigley North are over. I hope this is true. More importantly I hope the Brewers show the Cubs what it is, and how it is done. With all of the junk that's happened to start the 2013 season the Crew can still escape April with a .500 record or better. Tomorrow it's the nasty Jeff Samardzija versus Steady Marco Estrada. Soon enough will find out if a five game winning streak is too much to ask for.
Wednesday, April 17, 2013
Game Thirteen: Brewers 4, Giants 3
Box Score
The Brewers' 4-3 victory ensured tomorrow will be the first Gravy Day of the season. It's more relaxing to watch a game after the series has been clinched because regardless of the outcome you'll (usually) leave the series with a better record than you entered it with. This means the final game is just gravy and you can simply enjoy watching some baseball. There are about 35 exceptions to this rule I can rattle off the top of my head, but barring a horrific meltdown tomorrow I will not be too upset with a loss (though I'd obviously prefer the sweep). This is because the Brewers won tonight and on that subject, here are my three takeaways from the game:
1) Yuniesky Betancourt: First Baseman of the Future
It's quite possible the Brewers would be on the opposite of a three game win streak without Yuni B. His solo homer in the third and sac fly in the fifth plated two runs, which directly assisted the Brewers' victory. Though I'd prefer not to think about the circumstances that led to Betancourt being the Brewers' best option at first, for the time being I'll sit back and enjoy the relative hot streak. And in case you were wondering, Betancourt was intentionally walked for just the 9th time in his career during the decisive 9th inning.
2) Wire to wire, this was the most impressive victory of the season
Kyle Lohse continues to impress, even when he's giving up three runs on five hits in an inning. The Giants wasted little time spoiling the no-hit bid in the sixth and then proceeded to nickle and dime Lohse to tie the game. Despite this, Lohse was able to limit the damage and come back to pitch a clean frame in the 7th. As Harry Doyle said in Major League 2, it's amazing how a new uniform can change your attitude about a guy. Needless to say, he frustrated me to know end with the Cardinals.
After Lohse left the game became a battle of the bullpens, surprisingly won by the Brewers. Even better, there was no imminent threat of defeat* as Badenhop and Henderson shut down San Francisco in the 8th and 9th. Maybe it's his career 100 ERA+, but Badenhop looks like an average to somewhat above average reliever. If this holds true he'll be a huge asset to a bullpen coming off a terrible 2012 season. I'm also bullish about Henderson as he just seems like a guy that gets people out.
The Giants getting the tying run on second with two outs in the 9th was less than relaxing
The bottom of the 9th inning was especially encouraging as the winning run was driven across by the bottom of the order, specifically some guy named Blake Lalli. I know nothing about this guy other than he's been in the minors for a while and has 22 ML plate appearances. I can add to that list that he hit a walk-off single, which is pretty cool.
3) Carlos Gomez is very fast
He's also the only player I feel comfortable tagging from third on a shallow fly ball. If you can tolerate occasional mindless base-running errors there are few players in the majors as enjoyable on the bases as Gomez.
Looking ahead...
I have a nagging feeling Gallardo will not have a good start tomorrow. This is both because he's struggled so far in 2013 and was recently arrested for a DUI. Combine those things and it seems like a recipe for a snowman of a start.
On the subject of Gallardo, I'm interested to see what reception he gets from the crowd. Drunk driving is a heinous offense, but the two most important things are the he never makes the mistake again and gets the treatment he needs. Being supportive may actually be beneficial to his condition, so I hope any boos will be kept to a minimum. We'll see what happens.
The Brewers' 4-3 victory ensured tomorrow will be the first Gravy Day of the season. It's more relaxing to watch a game after the series has been clinched because regardless of the outcome you'll (usually) leave the series with a better record than you entered it with. This means the final game is just gravy and you can simply enjoy watching some baseball. There are about 35 exceptions to this rule I can rattle off the top of my head, but barring a horrific meltdown tomorrow I will not be too upset with a loss (though I'd obviously prefer the sweep). This is because the Brewers won tonight and on that subject, here are my three takeaways from the game:
1) Yuniesky Betancourt: First Baseman of the Future
It's quite possible the Brewers would be on the opposite of a three game win streak without Yuni B. His solo homer in the third and sac fly in the fifth plated two runs, which directly assisted the Brewers' victory. Though I'd prefer not to think about the circumstances that led to Betancourt being the Brewers' best option at first, for the time being I'll sit back and enjoy the relative hot streak. And in case you were wondering, Betancourt was intentionally walked for just the 9th time in his career during the decisive 9th inning.
2) Wire to wire, this was the most impressive victory of the season
Kyle Lohse continues to impress, even when he's giving up three runs on five hits in an inning. The Giants wasted little time spoiling the no-hit bid in the sixth and then proceeded to nickle and dime Lohse to tie the game. Despite this, Lohse was able to limit the damage and come back to pitch a clean frame in the 7th. As Harry Doyle said in Major League 2, it's amazing how a new uniform can change your attitude about a guy. Needless to say, he frustrated me to know end with the Cardinals.
After Lohse left the game became a battle of the bullpens, surprisingly won by the Brewers. Even better, there was no imminent threat of defeat* as Badenhop and Henderson shut down San Francisco in the 8th and 9th. Maybe it's his career 100 ERA+, but Badenhop looks like an average to somewhat above average reliever. If this holds true he'll be a huge asset to a bullpen coming off a terrible 2012 season. I'm also bullish about Henderson as he just seems like a guy that gets people out.
The Giants getting the tying run on second with two outs in the 9th was less than relaxing
The bottom of the 9th inning was especially encouraging as the winning run was driven across by the bottom of the order, specifically some guy named Blake Lalli. I know nothing about this guy other than he's been in the minors for a while and has 22 ML plate appearances. I can add to that list that he hit a walk-off single, which is pretty cool.
3) Carlos Gomez is very fast
He's also the only player I feel comfortable tagging from third on a shallow fly ball. If you can tolerate occasional mindless base-running errors there are few players in the majors as enjoyable on the bases as Gomez.
Looking ahead...
I have a nagging feeling Gallardo will not have a good start tomorrow. This is both because he's struggled so far in 2013 and was recently arrested for a DUI. Combine those things and it seems like a recipe for a snowman of a start.
On the subject of Gallardo, I'm interested to see what reception he gets from the crowd. Drunk driving is a heinous offense, but the two most important things are the he never makes the mistake again and gets the treatment he needs. Being supportive may actually be beneficial to his condition, so I hope any boos will be kept to a minimum. We'll see what happens.
Tuesday, April 16, 2013
Game Twelve: Brewers 10, Giants 8
Box Score
After the Brewers exploded for eight runs in the bottom of the third inning I started believing I was watching the elusive easy victory. Though the victory proved to be anything but easy I witnessed something just as rare: the beginning of a winning streak. Keeping with the theme of positivity, here are three things from tonight's game I liked:
1) The bottom of the third was pure catharsis.
What made this inning especially sweet was that most of the runs were driven in from unexpected sources. Watching Ryan Braun come through with a big hit is like checking your bank account on payday. You expect a certain amount of money to appear and you feel good to see it does. Watching a struggling hitter or Yuniesky Betancourt do the same, on the other hand, is like finding a $20 bill while taking out the trash. Tonight was a rare occasion where you became $40 richer after a short trip outside.
Trailing 3-1, Rickie Weeks had the bases loaded with one out and 3-2 count. Every neuron in my brain expected Weeks to strike our swinging, so to see him rip a double down the left field line provided an extra dosage of satisfaction. A few batters later sac fly maestro Yuniesky Betancourt blasted a grand slam over the left field wall and the rout, ever so temporarily, was on.
2) John Axford pitched another clean frame.
Regardless of the situation, every outing Axford has for the next several months is a high-stakes affair. He's a 30-year old ex-closer with a 15.19 ERA and one year removed from leading the majors in blown saves. A bad outing at best will expose him to a chorus of boos and at worst lead to a Vaudeville hook yanking him from The Show. An additional challenge to his future as a major leaguer is that the other 29 teams have seemingly figured him out. As such, if Axford starts performing again you can assume he's in a good place mentally and his mechanics have been properly adjusted.
Though his clean 7th was of the cardiac variety, being an optimist I'll take warning track fly balls instead of 450-foot rockets as a tangible sign of progress. Looking ahead, I like him as a 7th inning guy. Hopefully this proves to be more than wishful thinking.
3) The Brewers scored 10 runs despite Ryan Braun going 0-5 with a Golden Sombrero.
Something ain't right with Braun. He's struck out at least three times in three of the past four games, leading you to believe his neck is still bothering them. It's either that or he forgot to play baseball, which seems unlikely.
Early offensive struggles aside, I remain bullish on this offense. Tonight's game was evidence as to why that is. Norichika Aoki reached base four times, Carlos Gomez collected three base hits, Jonathan Lucroy continued to heat up, and Jean Segura stayed hot by going 2-4 with a stolen base. The Brewers are a healthy Braun and Aramis Ramirez away from being a formidable offensive club. My faith in modern sports medicine leads me to believe this day is coming soon.
Looking ahead...
In my mind a true streak begins when you win three games in a row. Tomorrow it's the struggling Ryan Vogelsong versus the scorching Kyle Lohse. Dare I say I have a good feeling about this game.
After the Brewers exploded for eight runs in the bottom of the third inning I started believing I was watching the elusive easy victory. Though the victory proved to be anything but easy I witnessed something just as rare: the beginning of a winning streak. Keeping with the theme of positivity, here are three things from tonight's game I liked:
1) The bottom of the third was pure catharsis.
What made this inning especially sweet was that most of the runs were driven in from unexpected sources. Watching Ryan Braun come through with a big hit is like checking your bank account on payday. You expect a certain amount of money to appear and you feel good to see it does. Watching a struggling hitter or Yuniesky Betancourt do the same, on the other hand, is like finding a $20 bill while taking out the trash. Tonight was a rare occasion where you became $40 richer after a short trip outside.
Trailing 3-1, Rickie Weeks had the bases loaded with one out and 3-2 count. Every neuron in my brain expected Weeks to strike our swinging, so to see him rip a double down the left field line provided an extra dosage of satisfaction. A few batters later sac fly maestro Yuniesky Betancourt blasted a grand slam over the left field wall and the rout, ever so temporarily, was on.
2) John Axford pitched another clean frame.
Regardless of the situation, every outing Axford has for the next several months is a high-stakes affair. He's a 30-year old ex-closer with a 15.19 ERA and one year removed from leading the majors in blown saves. A bad outing at best will expose him to a chorus of boos and at worst lead to a Vaudeville hook yanking him from The Show. An additional challenge to his future as a major leaguer is that the other 29 teams have seemingly figured him out. As such, if Axford starts performing again you can assume he's in a good place mentally and his mechanics have been properly adjusted.
Though his clean 7th was of the cardiac variety, being an optimist I'll take warning track fly balls instead of 450-foot rockets as a tangible sign of progress. Looking ahead, I like him as a 7th inning guy. Hopefully this proves to be more than wishful thinking.
3) The Brewers scored 10 runs despite Ryan Braun going 0-5 with a Golden Sombrero.
Something ain't right with Braun. He's struck out at least three times in three of the past four games, leading you to believe his neck is still bothering them. It's either that or he forgot to play baseball, which seems unlikely.
Early offensive struggles aside, I remain bullish on this offense. Tonight's game was evidence as to why that is. Norichika Aoki reached base four times, Carlos Gomez collected three base hits, Jonathan Lucroy continued to heat up, and Jean Segura stayed hot by going 2-4 with a stolen base. The Brewers are a healthy Braun and Aramis Ramirez away from being a formidable offensive club. My faith in modern sports medicine leads me to believe this day is coming soon.
Looking ahead...
In my mind a true streak begins when you win three games in a row. Tomorrow it's the struggling Ryan Vogelsong versus the scorching Kyle Lohse. Dare I say I have a good feeling about this game.
Monday, April 15, 2013
Series Recap: Brewers Salvage Finale
Few pairings are perfect as baseball and optimism. With each spring comes the hope that the filthy but erratic pitcher will harness his nastiness and your second baseman will finally develop his power stroke. These hopes are easy to harbor and oddly fulfilling, but they are not always grounded in reality. Eleven games is all it's taken to turn the optimism of the 2013 season into the impending dread of the 2002 campaign--being 3-8 with an unsightly -26 run differential will do that to you. It's also hard to feel good about losing a series to your most hated rival thanks to two consecutive shutouts, yet from the smoldering wreckage of the weekend emerged a trio of bona fide positives.
1) Outside of one inning, the pitching was very good.
For starters, Kyle Lohse was efficient and democratic in seven innings on Friday. He needed only 82 pitches to complete 7 innings, allowing just 6 hits while striking out 2 and walking none. In two starts this season he'd been everything the Brewers could have hoped for. Even better, his success is more than smoke and mirrors to this point, as evidenced by his 2.91 FIP.
On Sunday Marco Estrada had another solid outing, allowing three runs while striking out seven in six innings. Estrada has always made me nervous because he didn't settle into the majors until 27, doesn't throw hard, and his stuff is not overwhelmingly nasty. I keep waiting for an implosion a la Victor Santos, but I think I'll have to keep waiting. If anything Estrada's results have been worse than what they should be, so provided good health he has the makings of a right handed Chris Capuano.
A tip of the cap must also go to the bullpen which held the Cardinals scoreless for four innings on Sunday. This was especially important after the Brewers squandered a chance to take the lead in the top of the 9th of getaway day, as a loss there would have severely reduced my will to live. John Axford even got into the action by pitching his first clean frame of the season on Saturday. It was a mop-up inning, but it still counts. Hopefully he'll get a few more chances to eat some innings...in the opposite situation, of course.
Brewers pitching was excellent outside of the bottom of the sixth on Saturday. The primary culprit of this meltdown was one Yovani Gallardo. Oddly enough, his struggles provide a nice segue in the next positive takeway from the weekend.
2) Regression can be your friend
Professional athletes have a lot in common with automatons. Assuming good health and normal luck a baseball player will perform pretty much the same every season. Gallardo is a perfect example of this phenomenon.
Since becoming a full-time started in 2007, Gallardo has had ERAs of 3.67, 3.73, 3.84, 3.52, and 3.66, respectively.* A mere 0.32 separates his high ERA from his low, which leads me to believe his current 6.61 ERA will regress to the mean. He'll come around and when he does the Brewers will have three reliable starters in their rotation. That said, Ron Roenicke should seriously consider skipping his starts versus St. Louis, against whom he's 1-10 with a 6.84 ERA.
*2008 was not included because he only pitched 24.0 innings due to injury.
3) The way things are going, winning one game in St. Louis is perfectly acceptable.
Had the Brewers' record entering this series been reversed I would have been fine with the series unfolding exactly as it did. Struggles aside, the Cardinals are a mighty fine team that's currently on a tear. They way the Brewers pitching staff performed you would expect them to take 2 of 3 in most series', it just happened the Cardinals' staff collectively became Bob Gibson for a few games.
Also, that the Brewers broke out of a 32-inning scoring drought to tie and win the game on Sunday against said team at the very least demonstrated the same never-say-die attitude that got them to the brink of the playoffs last season.
Looking ahead, the Brewers return home to square off against the defending champion Giants. This will be followed by six games against the Cubs and Padres. Should the Crew take at least one from San Francisco a path to respectability emerges. It all starts tomorrow with Barry Zito versus Wily Peralta.
1) Outside of one inning, the pitching was very good.
For starters, Kyle Lohse was efficient and democratic in seven innings on Friday. He needed only 82 pitches to complete 7 innings, allowing just 6 hits while striking out 2 and walking none. In two starts this season he'd been everything the Brewers could have hoped for. Even better, his success is more than smoke and mirrors to this point, as evidenced by his 2.91 FIP.
On Sunday Marco Estrada had another solid outing, allowing three runs while striking out seven in six innings. Estrada has always made me nervous because he didn't settle into the majors until 27, doesn't throw hard, and his stuff is not overwhelmingly nasty. I keep waiting for an implosion a la Victor Santos, but I think I'll have to keep waiting. If anything Estrada's results have been worse than what they should be, so provided good health he has the makings of a right handed Chris Capuano.
A tip of the cap must also go to the bullpen which held the Cardinals scoreless for four innings on Sunday. This was especially important after the Brewers squandered a chance to take the lead in the top of the 9th of getaway day, as a loss there would have severely reduced my will to live. John Axford even got into the action by pitching his first clean frame of the season on Saturday. It was a mop-up inning, but it still counts. Hopefully he'll get a few more chances to eat some innings...in the opposite situation, of course.
Brewers pitching was excellent outside of the bottom of the sixth on Saturday. The primary culprit of this meltdown was one Yovani Gallardo. Oddly enough, his struggles provide a nice segue in the next positive takeway from the weekend.
2) Regression can be your friend
Professional athletes have a lot in common with automatons. Assuming good health and normal luck a baseball player will perform pretty much the same every season. Gallardo is a perfect example of this phenomenon.
Since becoming a full-time started in 2007, Gallardo has had ERAs of 3.67, 3.73, 3.84, 3.52, and 3.66, respectively.* A mere 0.32 separates his high ERA from his low, which leads me to believe his current 6.61 ERA will regress to the mean. He'll come around and when he does the Brewers will have three reliable starters in their rotation. That said, Ron Roenicke should seriously consider skipping his starts versus St. Louis, against whom he's 1-10 with a 6.84 ERA.
*2008 was not included because he only pitched 24.0 innings due to injury.
3) The way things are going, winning one game in St. Louis is perfectly acceptable.
Had the Brewers' record entering this series been reversed I would have been fine with the series unfolding exactly as it did. Struggles aside, the Cardinals are a mighty fine team that's currently on a tear. They way the Brewers pitching staff performed you would expect them to take 2 of 3 in most series', it just happened the Cardinals' staff collectively became Bob Gibson for a few games.
Also, that the Brewers broke out of a 32-inning scoring drought to tie and win the game on Sunday against said team at the very least demonstrated the same never-say-die attitude that got them to the brink of the playoffs last season.
Looking ahead, the Brewers return home to square off against the defending champion Giants. This will be followed by six games against the Cubs and Padres. Should the Crew take at least one from San Francisco a path to respectability emerges. It all starts tomorrow with Barry Zito versus Wily Peralta.
Tuesday, April 9, 2013
Game Eight: Cubs 6, Brewers 3
Box Score
I'll start by being is optimistic as possible.
The success of the Brewers' 2013 campaign hinges on several 50/50 propositions going the right way. One of them is Wily Peralta being a viable starting pitcher. He rebounded nicely from an ineffective start against the Rockies to generally stifle the Cubs for 6.2 innings. At the very least he's going to have to consistently shut down inferior opponents, so tonight was an encouraging sign.
Another 50/50 proposition is the play of Jean Segura. He's off to a fantastic start to the season at the plate, batting .454 in 24 ABs. That pace will not not last, but after hitting .313 in 1570 minor league ABs and a respectable .264 in limited major league action last season I'm feeling confident he'll be a regular contributor to the offense.
The last bit of optimism I can offer is that Ryan Braun is a raking machine. It's just a matter of him staying on the field for one reason or another. And now for some realistic discussion.
Until the bullpen gets straightened out his team will not consistently win games. Three runs is generally not enough to win a major league game, but tonight it was good enough to have a lead going into the 7th. At some point you just need to be able to send some relievers out there to nail it down for multiple innings. Like the 2012 team, the Brewers simply cannot hold a lead and in the rare event they do its in the most agonizing fashion imaginable. Sadly, it's not going to get better unless it gets better. There is no regression to the mean on the horizon or immediate help in AAA to save the day. The best hope is for the starters to pitch deeper into games and increase the odds of bullpen Russian Roulette.
All things considered the Cubs are a terrible team. One with a better record than the Brewers, but a terrible team nonetheless. Tomorrow it's Kyle Lohse versus the hittable Scott Feldman. This is a game the Crew should win and it's quite necessary the do so. I can live following a bad team, just not one that's hopelessly out of contention this early. There's a big difference between 2-7 and 3-6. Based on how things are going that two game swing would feel like twenty.
I'll start by being is optimistic as possible.
The success of the Brewers' 2013 campaign hinges on several 50/50 propositions going the right way. One of them is Wily Peralta being a viable starting pitcher. He rebounded nicely from an ineffective start against the Rockies to generally stifle the Cubs for 6.2 innings. At the very least he's going to have to consistently shut down inferior opponents, so tonight was an encouraging sign.
Another 50/50 proposition is the play of Jean Segura. He's off to a fantastic start to the season at the plate, batting .454 in 24 ABs. That pace will not not last, but after hitting .313 in 1570 minor league ABs and a respectable .264 in limited major league action last season I'm feeling confident he'll be a regular contributor to the offense.
The last bit of optimism I can offer is that Ryan Braun is a raking machine. It's just a matter of him staying on the field for one reason or another. And now for some realistic discussion.
Until the bullpen gets straightened out his team will not consistently win games. Three runs is generally not enough to win a major league game, but tonight it was good enough to have a lead going into the 7th. At some point you just need to be able to send some relievers out there to nail it down for multiple innings. Like the 2012 team, the Brewers simply cannot hold a lead and in the rare event they do its in the most agonizing fashion imaginable. Sadly, it's not going to get better unless it gets better. There is no regression to the mean on the horizon or immediate help in AAA to save the day. The best hope is for the starters to pitch deeper into games and increase the odds of bullpen Russian Roulette.
All things considered the Cubs are a terrible team. One with a better record than the Brewers, but a terrible team nonetheless. Tomorrow it's Kyle Lohse versus the hittable Scott Feldman. This is a game the Crew should win and it's quite necessary the do so. I can live following a bad team, just not one that's hopelessly out of contention this early. There's a big difference between 2-7 and 3-6. Based on how things are going that two game swing would feel like twenty.
Monday, April 8, 2013
Game Seven: Brewers 7, Cubs 4
Box Score
The game was immensely satisfying for 8.5 innings, so I'll start by focusing on that.
Marco Estrada was the pitcher the Brewers need him to be today. With the exception of a dinger in the second, Estrada dominated the Cubs and provided the longest start of the season by any Brewers starter. He had great command all day long and his breaking stuff was fantastic. All in all it was a confidence-inspiring start from Estrada as it demonstrated that when he's on he's very effective. His RBI double in the 7th added what turned out to be some much needed insurance.
On the offensive side it was good to see Braun get three hits in his return. The Brewers desperately need his bat in the lineup and today simply demonstrated what we already know. The hit of game came from Martin Maldonado in the form of a bases-clearing double with two outs in the top of the first. The hit extended the Brewers lead to 4-0 and built a comfortable margin before Edwin Jackson inevitably settled in. Too often teams fail to tack on runs in the early inning and had Maldonado not hit the double the Brewers probably would have lost. In this hypothetical loss the culprit would have been--what else--the bullpen.
Regardless of the lead you can never relax with the Brewers. Leading 7-2 heading into the bottom of the 9th Brandon Kintzler promptly started a dumpster fire which allowed the Cubs to come far too close for an iconic Opening Day victory for comfort. In a telling sign of the state of the Brewers' embattled closer, Jim Henderson came in to shut the door. It was not easy as he first allowed a run to score on a hit and Martin Maldonado committed an error on what could have been a game-ending double play. Despite this I had an odd feeling watching him pitch the 9th, a feeling that can only be described as confidence.
One quick blurb on the last out of the game: Off the bat my first concern was a walk-off grand slam. Fortunately a stiff wind was blowing in, but on any other day it could have been much worse. Once it became apparent the ball was going to stay in the park my concern shifted to the catch being secured. I've seen many an outfielder lose a ball in the sun at Wrigley and was relived Norichika Aoki decided to save his Brant Brown impression for another day.
The Brewers survived and now are one win away from taking the series. Tomorrow it's Wily Peralta vs. Travis Wood. The Cubs are a great team to build some confidence against, and hopefully Peralta takes advantage of the opportunity.
The game was immensely satisfying for 8.5 innings, so I'll start by focusing on that.
Marco Estrada was the pitcher the Brewers need him to be today. With the exception of a dinger in the second, Estrada dominated the Cubs and provided the longest start of the season by any Brewers starter. He had great command all day long and his breaking stuff was fantastic. All in all it was a confidence-inspiring start from Estrada as it demonstrated that when he's on he's very effective. His RBI double in the 7th added what turned out to be some much needed insurance.
On the offensive side it was good to see Braun get three hits in his return. The Brewers desperately need his bat in the lineup and today simply demonstrated what we already know. The hit of game came from Martin Maldonado in the form of a bases-clearing double with two outs in the top of the first. The hit extended the Brewers lead to 4-0 and built a comfortable margin before Edwin Jackson inevitably settled in. Too often teams fail to tack on runs in the early inning and had Maldonado not hit the double the Brewers probably would have lost. In this hypothetical loss the culprit would have been--what else--the bullpen.
Regardless of the lead you can never relax with the Brewers. Leading 7-2 heading into the bottom of the 9th Brandon Kintzler promptly started a dumpster fire which allowed the Cubs to come far too close for an iconic Opening Day victory for comfort. In a telling sign of the state of the Brewers' embattled closer, Jim Henderson came in to shut the door. It was not easy as he first allowed a run to score on a hit and Martin Maldonado committed an error on what could have been a game-ending double play. Despite this I had an odd feeling watching him pitch the 9th, a feeling that can only be described as confidence.
One quick blurb on the last out of the game: Off the bat my first concern was a walk-off grand slam. Fortunately a stiff wind was blowing in, but on any other day it could have been much worse. Once it became apparent the ball was going to stay in the park my concern shifted to the catch being secured. I've seen many an outfielder lose a ball in the sun at Wrigley and was relived Norichika Aoki decided to save his Brant Brown impression for another day.
The Brewers survived and now are one win away from taking the series. Tomorrow it's Wily Peralta vs. Travis Wood. The Cubs are a great team to build some confidence against, and hopefully Peralta takes advantage of the opportunity.
Sunday, April 7, 2013
Series Recap: Deflating Sweep Edition
It is never too early to panic. The Brewers are off to the second worst possible start to the season (1-5), but more concerning is how bad they've looked doing it. In terms of hopeless losing, the sweep at the hands of the Diamondbacks was about as bad as it gets.
The two concerns I had going into the seasons were the bullpen and starting pitching. I can now add injuries to that list as Aramis Ramirez is on the DL and Ryan Braun did not play due to neck spasms. I'll get to those in a bit, but for now I will focus on pitching.
John Axford surrendered all of four home runs in 2011; a total he has matched in four innings this season. Furthermore, as we saw today the outs on balls in play are dangerously close to leaving the park or smoked right at someone. He regressed in 2012 and it's clear he has regressed more in 2013. He is no longer the effectively wild flame thrower with a hammer that keeps hitters guessing. Instead he peppers batters with a steady stream of easy-to-read fastballs and hanging curve balls. There is no reason to keep him as the closer and at this point it's hard to justify having him on a Major League roster. He should spend some time in Nashville getting his mechanics worked out. The Brewers are doing him and the team a disservice by not allowing him to get right.
The addition of Kyle Lohse was a great move to bolster the spotty starting rotation. His start on Friday was like manna from Heaven, even if it did not yield a win. Though his late-game pinch hitting skills are lacking, he'll be a fine anchor to Gallardo, whose struggles I do not expect to last. Conversely, the struggles of Mike Fiers seem here to stay. He pitched poorly at the end of last season and in spring training, thus his most recent start is the exact opposite of what I wanted to see. I don't expect much from Fiers, but at this point I'm not confident in his ability to be consistently average. Right handers that top out at 90 make me nervous, and for good reason. That said, he has had success in the show and its very possible he will again.
Struggles of Axford and Fiers aside, the biggest issue emerging is injuries. Hart, Ramirez, and Braun are the three best hitters on the team and tops in the majors at their positions. You win baseball by scoring more runs than your opponents, so not having them in the lineup is simply devastating. One way to mask the pitching woes it by putting a lot of runs on the board, a task not helped with Yuniesky Betancourt or Khris Davis in the lineup. If Braun and Co. do not get healthy soon this will turn into a lost season.
Even though the doomsday scenario for 2013 is seemingly unfolding for the Brewers, I remain optimistic they will finish the season north of .500. Once healthy they still have the top offense in the NL and generally speaking I think their starters and bullpen will be average on the whole. If my math is correct: Excellent offense + slightly below average starting pitching + average bullpen = 83 wins. Of course, this optimism also happens to be heavily reliant on taking at least two of three from the Cubs. Anything less that that will cause me to sound doomsday alarm.
The two concerns I had going into the seasons were the bullpen and starting pitching. I can now add injuries to that list as Aramis Ramirez is on the DL and Ryan Braun did not play due to neck spasms. I'll get to those in a bit, but for now I will focus on pitching.
John Axford surrendered all of four home runs in 2011; a total he has matched in four innings this season. Furthermore, as we saw today the outs on balls in play are dangerously close to leaving the park or smoked right at someone. He regressed in 2012 and it's clear he has regressed more in 2013. He is no longer the effectively wild flame thrower with a hammer that keeps hitters guessing. Instead he peppers batters with a steady stream of easy-to-read fastballs and hanging curve balls. There is no reason to keep him as the closer and at this point it's hard to justify having him on a Major League roster. He should spend some time in Nashville getting his mechanics worked out. The Brewers are doing him and the team a disservice by not allowing him to get right.
The addition of Kyle Lohse was a great move to bolster the spotty starting rotation. His start on Friday was like manna from Heaven, even if it did not yield a win. Though his late-game pinch hitting skills are lacking, he'll be a fine anchor to Gallardo, whose struggles I do not expect to last. Conversely, the struggles of Mike Fiers seem here to stay. He pitched poorly at the end of last season and in spring training, thus his most recent start is the exact opposite of what I wanted to see. I don't expect much from Fiers, but at this point I'm not confident in his ability to be consistently average. Right handers that top out at 90 make me nervous, and for good reason. That said, he has had success in the show and its very possible he will again.
Struggles of Axford and Fiers aside, the biggest issue emerging is injuries. Hart, Ramirez, and Braun are the three best hitters on the team and tops in the majors at their positions. You win baseball by scoring more runs than your opponents, so not having them in the lineup is simply devastating. One way to mask the pitching woes it by putting a lot of runs on the board, a task not helped with Yuniesky Betancourt or Khris Davis in the lineup. If Braun and Co. do not get healthy soon this will turn into a lost season.
Even though the doomsday scenario for 2013 is seemingly unfolding for the Brewers, I remain optimistic they will finish the season north of .500. Once healthy they still have the top offense in the NL and generally speaking I think their starters and bullpen will be average on the whole. If my math is correct: Excellent offense + slightly below average starting pitching + average bullpen = 83 wins. Of course, this optimism also happens to be heavily reliant on taking at least two of three from the Cubs. Anything less that that will cause me to sound doomsday alarm.
Wednesday, April 3, 2013
Game Three: Rockies 7, Brewers 3
Box Score
Today's game (and yesterday's for that matter) was in line with my concerns for the season. Spotty starting pitching, unbalanced offense, and unreliable relief pitching once again doomed the Brewers as they dropped the opening series to the Rockies.
Wily Peralta extended the Brewers' streak of starters going less than six inning by surrendering 4 runs and 9 base runners in 5.1 innings. There is also the issue that such starts cause game to drag on. In this case the fans that endured the full 3:31 game were treated to another John Axford dumpster fire, which brings me to the most acute issue facing the Brewers.
Axford cannot be trusted in the closers role. This is what happens when you give up a 3 homers in 1.2 innings pitched, but it goes deeper than that. Batters are simply sitting on his fastball or in the case of Dexter Fowler tonight, his hanging curveball. He has neither the location or movement on his fastball to survive without a reliable second pitch, which he does not have at the moment. His raw stuff is good enough to warrant a spot on the roster, just not closing games.
Looking ahead, a strong start from Kyle Lohse on Friday will go a long way towards instilling some early season hope in the prospects of the team. Sadly I'll have to wait through an agonizing off day to see what's he has in store for 2013.
Today's game (and yesterday's for that matter) was in line with my concerns for the season. Spotty starting pitching, unbalanced offense, and unreliable relief pitching once again doomed the Brewers as they dropped the opening series to the Rockies.
Wily Peralta extended the Brewers' streak of starters going less than six inning by surrendering 4 runs and 9 base runners in 5.1 innings. There is also the issue that such starts cause game to drag on. In this case the fans that endured the full 3:31 game were treated to another John Axford dumpster fire, which brings me to the most acute issue facing the Brewers.
Axford cannot be trusted in the closers role. This is what happens when you give up a 3 homers in 1.2 innings pitched, but it goes deeper than that. Batters are simply sitting on his fastball or in the case of Dexter Fowler tonight, his hanging curveball. He has neither the location or movement on his fastball to survive without a reliable second pitch, which he does not have at the moment. His raw stuff is good enough to warrant a spot on the roster, just not closing games.
Looking ahead, a strong start from Kyle Lohse on Friday will go a long way towards instilling some early season hope in the prospects of the team. Sadly I'll have to wait through an agonizing off day to see what's he has in store for 2013.
Tuesday, April 2, 2013
Game Two: Rockies 8, Brewers 4
Box Score
By losing tonight the Brewers went from being on pace to finish 162-0 to 81-81. Though the first outcome is preferred, with this team the second seems much more likely. Tonight's game highlighted a couple points as to why that is.
First, I like Marco Estrada in the rotation. He strikes out a batter an inning, limits walks, and is generally good about keeping the ball in the park. His ceiling is as a rich man's Dave Bush, meaning he'll be slightly above league average in the aggregate and occasionally dominant. This also means he'd have a place on just about every rotation in the majors. However, the problem lies with the fact he's the #2 starter in the Brewers' rotation. Tonight's start was respectable enough (5 IP, 8 SO, 0 BB, 9 H, 4 ER), yet something that will directly lead to victory. Estrada will have several starts like this, which will be more of a problem if the Brewers do not score more runs. This leads to the next point...
...Their offense really needs Corey Hart to come back. Alex Gonzalez is batting .000 in his place. Small sample aside, he's a career .691 OPSer. It's hard to be consistent when a premium offensive position is filled with a black hole. Though this is a small point, the injury to Hart removes the margin for error from the rest of the bats in the lineup. On the bright side, Jean Segura has looked good in limited action and Aramis Ramirez is still a doubles machine.
All that aside, tonight's loss was a standard defeat that will only be problematic if it becomes a consistent occurrence. With this in mind the first month of the season is something to watch closely. In particular, the Brewers have huge questions marks in their rotation. Tomorrow's game is the first start for Wily Peralta, which hopefully will be a sign of good things to come.
By losing tonight the Brewers went from being on pace to finish 162-0 to 81-81. Though the first outcome is preferred, with this team the second seems much more likely. Tonight's game highlighted a couple points as to why that is.
First, I like Marco Estrada in the rotation. He strikes out a batter an inning, limits walks, and is generally good about keeping the ball in the park. His ceiling is as a rich man's Dave Bush, meaning he'll be slightly above league average in the aggregate and occasionally dominant. This also means he'd have a place on just about every rotation in the majors. However, the problem lies with the fact he's the #2 starter in the Brewers' rotation. Tonight's start was respectable enough (5 IP, 8 SO, 0 BB, 9 H, 4 ER), yet something that will directly lead to victory. Estrada will have several starts like this, which will be more of a problem if the Brewers do not score more runs. This leads to the next point...
...Their offense really needs Corey Hart to come back. Alex Gonzalez is batting .000 in his place. Small sample aside, he's a career .691 OPSer. It's hard to be consistent when a premium offensive position is filled with a black hole. Though this is a small point, the injury to Hart removes the margin for error from the rest of the bats in the lineup. On the bright side, Jean Segura has looked good in limited action and Aramis Ramirez is still a doubles machine.
All that aside, tonight's loss was a standard defeat that will only be problematic if it becomes a consistent occurrence. With this in mind the first month of the season is something to watch closely. In particular, the Brewers have huge questions marks in their rotation. Tomorrow's game is the first start for Wily Peralta, which hopefully will be a sign of good things to come.
Monday, April 1, 2013
Game One: Brewers 5, Rockies 4 (10)
Box Score
The last time John Axford blew a save on Opening Day the Brewers went on to win the NL Central. One might consider the 9th inning of today's game to be a good omen, but I'm more inclined to harbor concern.
Axford is one of my favorite players in the majors. I love how he spits hot fire and is generally a cool dude. That he picked 14 of 15 Oscar winners is just tremendous. I want him to do well because I like the guy and I need him to do well for my mental health as a Brewers fan because he's the closer. Unfortunately his blown save was far too reminiscent of his 2012 struggles for my liking.
After Axford struck out the first two batters of the 9th he was one out away from closing the victory. His attempt to seal the deal involved leaving a first-pitch 95-mph heater in a location best described as middle-middle. Dexter Fowler ripped it over the right field fence to tie the game at four. Though blown saves happen, on far too many occasions in 2012 Axford recorded the first two outs with ease before allowing the tying or winning runs to score, and far too often this was the result of a fastball the batter was sitting on. Given how hard he throws every batter is a potential home run threat. If he does not figure out his location soon the city of Milwaukee is going to quickly find itself in short supply of Tums.
Blown save aside, all's well that ends well. Axford's biff opened the door for Jim Henderson to show the depth he adds to the bullpen and Jonathan Lucroy to be hero for a day. Also of importance is that after three consecutive underwhelming home openers the Brewers gave fans a reason to get excited. The 8th inning rally was about as good as it gets.
Other conclusions from a sample size that's as small as it gets:
-Brewers pitchers came within three strikeouts of setting the major league record last season. Despite the struggles or Axford and Yovani Gallardo, Brewers pitchers stuck out 11 batters today.
-Other positive trends include Norichika Aoki getting on base twice and Aramis Ramirez ripping the would-be game winning double in the bottom of the 8th. Hopefully they're picking up right where they left off from last year.
Tomorrow it's former Brewers Jorge De La Rosa versus Marco Estrada. I'm expecting Estrada to have a solid year, so it'll be interesting to see how he pitches tomorrow. De La Rosa is a former Brewer pitcher, meaning you can pencil him in for 7 innings, 3 hits, and one run allowed.
The last time John Axford blew a save on Opening Day the Brewers went on to win the NL Central. One might consider the 9th inning of today's game to be a good omen, but I'm more inclined to harbor concern.
Axford is one of my favorite players in the majors. I love how he spits hot fire and is generally a cool dude. That he picked 14 of 15 Oscar winners is just tremendous. I want him to do well because I like the guy and I need him to do well for my mental health as a Brewers fan because he's the closer. Unfortunately his blown save was far too reminiscent of his 2012 struggles for my liking.
After Axford struck out the first two batters of the 9th he was one out away from closing the victory. His attempt to seal the deal involved leaving a first-pitch 95-mph heater in a location best described as middle-middle. Dexter Fowler ripped it over the right field fence to tie the game at four. Though blown saves happen, on far too many occasions in 2012 Axford recorded the first two outs with ease before allowing the tying or winning runs to score, and far too often this was the result of a fastball the batter was sitting on. Given how hard he throws every batter is a potential home run threat. If he does not figure out his location soon the city of Milwaukee is going to quickly find itself in short supply of Tums.
Blown save aside, all's well that ends well. Axford's biff opened the door for Jim Henderson to show the depth he adds to the bullpen and Jonathan Lucroy to be hero for a day. Also of importance is that after three consecutive underwhelming home openers the Brewers gave fans a reason to get excited. The 8th inning rally was about as good as it gets.
Other conclusions from a sample size that's as small as it gets:
-Brewers pitchers came within three strikeouts of setting the major league record last season. Despite the struggles or Axford and Yovani Gallardo, Brewers pitchers stuck out 11 batters today.
-Other positive trends include Norichika Aoki getting on base twice and Aramis Ramirez ripping the would-be game winning double in the bottom of the 8th. Hopefully they're picking up right where they left off from last year.
Tomorrow it's former Brewers Jorge De La Rosa versus Marco Estrada. I'm expecting Estrada to have a solid year, so it'll be interesting to see how he pitches tomorrow. De La Rosa is a former Brewer pitcher, meaning you can pencil him in for 7 innings, 3 hits, and one run allowed.
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