Box Score
Today's game (and yesterday's for that matter) was in line with my concerns for the season. Spotty starting pitching, unbalanced offense, and unreliable relief pitching once again doomed the Brewers as they dropped the opening series to the Rockies.
Wily Peralta extended the Brewers' streak of starters going less than six inning by surrendering 4 runs and 9 base runners in 5.1 innings. There is also the issue that such starts cause game to drag on. In this case the fans that endured the full 3:31 game were treated to another John Axford dumpster fire, which brings me to the most acute issue facing the Brewers.
Axford cannot be trusted in the closers role. This is what happens when you give up a 3 homers in 1.2 innings pitched, but it goes deeper than that. Batters are simply sitting on his fastball or in the case of Dexter Fowler tonight, his hanging curveball. He has neither the location or movement on his fastball to survive without a reliable second pitch, which he does not have at the moment. His raw stuff is good enough to warrant a spot on the roster, just not closing games.
Looking ahead, a strong start from Kyle Lohse on Friday will go a long way towards instilling some early season hope in the prospects of the team. Sadly I'll have to wait through an agonizing off day to see what's he has in store for 2013.
Wednesday, April 3, 2013
Tuesday, April 2, 2013
Game Two: Rockies 8, Brewers 4
Box Score
By losing tonight the Brewers went from being on pace to finish 162-0 to 81-81. Though the first outcome is preferred, with this team the second seems much more likely. Tonight's game highlighted a couple points as to why that is.
First, I like Marco Estrada in the rotation. He strikes out a batter an inning, limits walks, and is generally good about keeping the ball in the park. His ceiling is as a rich man's Dave Bush, meaning he'll be slightly above league average in the aggregate and occasionally dominant. This also means he'd have a place on just about every rotation in the majors. However, the problem lies with the fact he's the #2 starter in the Brewers' rotation. Tonight's start was respectable enough (5 IP, 8 SO, 0 BB, 9 H, 4 ER), yet something that will directly lead to victory. Estrada will have several starts like this, which will be more of a problem if the Brewers do not score more runs. This leads to the next point...
...Their offense really needs Corey Hart to come back. Alex Gonzalez is batting .000 in his place. Small sample aside, he's a career .691 OPSer. It's hard to be consistent when a premium offensive position is filled with a black hole. Though this is a small point, the injury to Hart removes the margin for error from the rest of the bats in the lineup. On the bright side, Jean Segura has looked good in limited action and Aramis Ramirez is still a doubles machine.
All that aside, tonight's loss was a standard defeat that will only be problematic if it becomes a consistent occurrence. With this in mind the first month of the season is something to watch closely. In particular, the Brewers have huge questions marks in their rotation. Tomorrow's game is the first start for Wily Peralta, which hopefully will be a sign of good things to come.
By losing tonight the Brewers went from being on pace to finish 162-0 to 81-81. Though the first outcome is preferred, with this team the second seems much more likely. Tonight's game highlighted a couple points as to why that is.
First, I like Marco Estrada in the rotation. He strikes out a batter an inning, limits walks, and is generally good about keeping the ball in the park. His ceiling is as a rich man's Dave Bush, meaning he'll be slightly above league average in the aggregate and occasionally dominant. This also means he'd have a place on just about every rotation in the majors. However, the problem lies with the fact he's the #2 starter in the Brewers' rotation. Tonight's start was respectable enough (5 IP, 8 SO, 0 BB, 9 H, 4 ER), yet something that will directly lead to victory. Estrada will have several starts like this, which will be more of a problem if the Brewers do not score more runs. This leads to the next point...
...Their offense really needs Corey Hart to come back. Alex Gonzalez is batting .000 in his place. Small sample aside, he's a career .691 OPSer. It's hard to be consistent when a premium offensive position is filled with a black hole. Though this is a small point, the injury to Hart removes the margin for error from the rest of the bats in the lineup. On the bright side, Jean Segura has looked good in limited action and Aramis Ramirez is still a doubles machine.
All that aside, tonight's loss was a standard defeat that will only be problematic if it becomes a consistent occurrence. With this in mind the first month of the season is something to watch closely. In particular, the Brewers have huge questions marks in their rotation. Tomorrow's game is the first start for Wily Peralta, which hopefully will be a sign of good things to come.
Monday, April 1, 2013
Game One: Brewers 5, Rockies 4 (10)
Box Score
The last time John Axford blew a save on Opening Day the Brewers went on to win the NL Central. One might consider the 9th inning of today's game to be a good omen, but I'm more inclined to harbor concern.
Axford is one of my favorite players in the majors. I love how he spits hot fire and is generally a cool dude. That he picked 14 of 15 Oscar winners is just tremendous. I want him to do well because I like the guy and I need him to do well for my mental health as a Brewers fan because he's the closer. Unfortunately his blown save was far too reminiscent of his 2012 struggles for my liking.
After Axford struck out the first two batters of the 9th he was one out away from closing the victory. His attempt to seal the deal involved leaving a first-pitch 95-mph heater in a location best described as middle-middle. Dexter Fowler ripped it over the right field fence to tie the game at four. Though blown saves happen, on far too many occasions in 2012 Axford recorded the first two outs with ease before allowing the tying or winning runs to score, and far too often this was the result of a fastball the batter was sitting on. Given how hard he throws every batter is a potential home run threat. If he does not figure out his location soon the city of Milwaukee is going to quickly find itself in short supply of Tums.
Blown save aside, all's well that ends well. Axford's biff opened the door for Jim Henderson to show the depth he adds to the bullpen and Jonathan Lucroy to be hero for a day. Also of importance is that after three consecutive underwhelming home openers the Brewers gave fans a reason to get excited. The 8th inning rally was about as good as it gets.
Other conclusions from a sample size that's as small as it gets:
-Brewers pitchers came within three strikeouts of setting the major league record last season. Despite the struggles or Axford and Yovani Gallardo, Brewers pitchers stuck out 11 batters today.
-Other positive trends include Norichika Aoki getting on base twice and Aramis Ramirez ripping the would-be game winning double in the bottom of the 8th. Hopefully they're picking up right where they left off from last year.
Tomorrow it's former Brewers Jorge De La Rosa versus Marco Estrada. I'm expecting Estrada to have a solid year, so it'll be interesting to see how he pitches tomorrow. De La Rosa is a former Brewer pitcher, meaning you can pencil him in for 7 innings, 3 hits, and one run allowed.
The last time John Axford blew a save on Opening Day the Brewers went on to win the NL Central. One might consider the 9th inning of today's game to be a good omen, but I'm more inclined to harbor concern.
Axford is one of my favorite players in the majors. I love how he spits hot fire and is generally a cool dude. That he picked 14 of 15 Oscar winners is just tremendous. I want him to do well because I like the guy and I need him to do well for my mental health as a Brewers fan because he's the closer. Unfortunately his blown save was far too reminiscent of his 2012 struggles for my liking.
After Axford struck out the first two batters of the 9th he was one out away from closing the victory. His attempt to seal the deal involved leaving a first-pitch 95-mph heater in a location best described as middle-middle. Dexter Fowler ripped it over the right field fence to tie the game at four. Though blown saves happen, on far too many occasions in 2012 Axford recorded the first two outs with ease before allowing the tying or winning runs to score, and far too often this was the result of a fastball the batter was sitting on. Given how hard he throws every batter is a potential home run threat. If he does not figure out his location soon the city of Milwaukee is going to quickly find itself in short supply of Tums.
Blown save aside, all's well that ends well. Axford's biff opened the door for Jim Henderson to show the depth he adds to the bullpen and Jonathan Lucroy to be hero for a day. Also of importance is that after three consecutive underwhelming home openers the Brewers gave fans a reason to get excited. The 8th inning rally was about as good as it gets.
Other conclusions from a sample size that's as small as it gets:
-Brewers pitchers came within three strikeouts of setting the major league record last season. Despite the struggles or Axford and Yovani Gallardo, Brewers pitchers stuck out 11 batters today.
-Other positive trends include Norichika Aoki getting on base twice and Aramis Ramirez ripping the would-be game winning double in the bottom of the 8th. Hopefully they're picking up right where they left off from last year.
Tomorrow it's former Brewers Jorge De La Rosa versus Marco Estrada. I'm expecting Estrada to have a solid year, so it'll be interesting to see how he pitches tomorrow. De La Rosa is a former Brewer pitcher, meaning you can pencil him in for 7 innings, 3 hits, and one run allowed.
Monday, March 25, 2013
Kyle Lohse, 3 years/$33 Million
My first reaction to this signing was very positive. Kyle Lohse hurled 211.0 innings last season and posted a tidy 2.83 ERA. He also limited the long ball (19 home runs allowed) and issued a mere 38 free passes. Furthermore, outside of Yovani Gallardo the Brewers' rotation is a parade of unknowns. Lohse has been a solid innings-eater over the course of his career and the Crew are in desperate need of stability in the rotation. His presence will help Milwaukee win a lot of games and, if it all goes right, contend for the post season.
My second reaction was more skeptical. Lohse has a career ERA of 4.55. Not awful, but certainly not worth $11 million per season. He's also 34 years old and has logged 1973.0 innings in his career, meaning his best years are probably behind him. Is it just me, or did the Brewers find a way to re-sign Jeff Suppan? So how do I really feel about the deal? My true feeling about the deal lies somewhere between, which means I feel this is the Randy Wolf signing all over again. This is a good thing.
Back in 2010 the Crew picked up Randy Wolf on a 3-year/$27 million deal with a team option for a 4th year. Wolf was very good for the Brewers and instrumental in their run to the 2011 NLCS. (He also earns points for being the only Brewer pitcher to shut down the Cardinals in that series.) Granted, Wolf was awful in 2012 and eventually released. Even so, his signing was worthwhile and overall made the Brewers a better team.
Much like the Wolf, Kyle Lohse is a solid pitcher on the back side of his career that looks to have a couple of good years left in him. He's not an ace, nor will he contend for the Cy Young or even an All-Star appearance, but he's gives you innings and provides a much needed anchor behind Gallardo. Should Mike Fiers, Marco Estrada, and Chris Narveson/Wily Peralta manage to be average-ish the Brewers will contend thanks to their powerful offense. This is, of course is assuming the bullpen does not implode again and MLB does not find a reason to suspend Ryan Braun. I prefer not to think about those things for now.
Grade for Signing: B
My second reaction was more skeptical. Lohse has a career ERA of 4.55. Not awful, but certainly not worth $11 million per season. He's also 34 years old and has logged 1973.0 innings in his career, meaning his best years are probably behind him. Is it just me, or did the Brewers find a way to re-sign Jeff Suppan? So how do I really feel about the deal? My true feeling about the deal lies somewhere between, which means I feel this is the Randy Wolf signing all over again. This is a good thing.
Back in 2010 the Crew picked up Randy Wolf on a 3-year/$27 million deal with a team option for a 4th year. Wolf was very good for the Brewers and instrumental in their run to the 2011 NLCS. (He also earns points for being the only Brewer pitcher to shut down the Cardinals in that series.) Granted, Wolf was awful in 2012 and eventually released. Even so, his signing was worthwhile and overall made the Brewers a better team.
Much like the Wolf, Kyle Lohse is a solid pitcher on the back side of his career that looks to have a couple of good years left in him. He's not an ace, nor will he contend for the Cy Young or even an All-Star appearance, but he's gives you innings and provides a much needed anchor behind Gallardo. Should Mike Fiers, Marco Estrada, and Chris Narveson/Wily Peralta manage to be average-ish the Brewers will contend thanks to their powerful offense. This is, of course is assuming the bullpen does not implode again and MLB does not find a reason to suspend Ryan Braun. I prefer not to think about those things for now.
Grade for Signing: B
Friday, March 22, 2013
How about those Golden Eagles?
From 2010-2012 I took a day off for the first round of the NCAA Tournament. I do this because the first two days of the tourney are a magical stretch of basketball that require your full attention. You're not going to get anything done at work anyway, so what kind of sports fan is stupid enough to work for both days? This is a good question.
Between 12:30-2:30pm the 3rd seeded Marquette Golden Eagles were playing the 14th seeded Davidson Wildcats. Just as Marquette was over-seeded as a 3, Davidson was closer to a 11 than a 14. This dissonance in seeding was reflected by virtue of the line* and that Davidson was a very popular upset pick. This game had all the makings of something that would require my full attention. Also of note: I was working between 12:30 and 2:30, thus I was relegated to snippets of the game in the lounge and compulsive score checking on my iPhone. The big punishment for my sin, of course, was being in a subdued meeting while Marquette was making one of the most furious comebacks you will ever see.
Marquette was -4 whereas fellow 3 seeds Michigan State and New Mexico were favored by 10 and 11, respectively.
Though I did not watch most of the game I got a good sense of its essence. Once again Marquette struggled making shots and generally could not make any consistent runs against Davidson. From start to finish this game will not go down in the annals of college basketball history as a classic, but come tournament time all people really care about is the ending. That Marquette had one of the most iconic endings in school history is a tad bit aggravating because I did not get the experience the elation of their unlikely victory in real time. This is easier to take because Marquette won, will be playing on Saturday (hooray for not working on weekends!), and most importantly, I learned my lesson to always take work off when the Golden Eagles are playing in the NCAA Tournament. Then again, who's to say there isn't an alternate reality where I took the day off and this created a butterfly effect which led to a Marquette loss? Good luck disproving that theory.
In the reality where we exist the Golden Eagles won on a buzzer beater, but it's really more impressive than that. Trailing by five points with 30 seconds to play against a team that collectively hits 80% of their free throws, Marquette had only one path to victory: hit three point shots. Like a final shot attempt taken while trailing, any miss would have led to certain defeat. They needed to make three consecutive do or die shots, and that's exactly what happened. When you consider the unlikeliness of a bad shooting team like Marquette doing that, you can argue their comeback was one of the most miraculous in Tournament history. Of course, no comeback is complete without a little help from the opposition.
With 10 seconds left De'Mon Brooks opted to forgo a trip to the line in favor of an attempt to win the damn game. After Jamil Wilson's three pulled MU within one, Brooks found himself in custody of the basketball and instead of allowing himself to be fouled, he passed down court to a wide open Nik Cochran. His pass resulted in a turnover, however, which gave a Marquette team suddenly incapable of missing shots a chance to win. The decision to pass the ball was imprudent and allowed Marquette to win the game, but I'm still inclined to defend the move. If the pass is true Cochran dribbles out the clock and the Wildcats win. There was an opportunity for certain victory and I do not fault Brooks recognizing that (especially since Cochran was signalling for the ball). In general I think players and coaches should be more aggressive when a window to certain victory is opened. This just happened to not be one of those windows.
Despite all they've accomplished this season I'm still not convinced the Golden Eagles are actually a good team. Last minute of this game notwithstanding, they are among the worst in the country at hitting threes. They also turn the ball over quite a bit and lack anybody that is exceptionally talented. But they keep on winning and winning. At some point this winning is going to stop. Marquette has gotten slapped around by top echelon teams this season (Florida, Louisville) and barring upsets they are on a collision courts to play Miami and Indiana. A team that squeaks by Davidson is liable to get blown out by the two top seeds, but given Marquette's uncanny ability to just win games I'd like to see the Hurricanes and Hoosiers try. The tournament is all about the ability to survive and advance. Few teams have the moxie to do this as well as Marquette.
Between 12:30-2:30pm the 3rd seeded Marquette Golden Eagles were playing the 14th seeded Davidson Wildcats. Just as Marquette was over-seeded as a 3, Davidson was closer to a 11 than a 14. This dissonance in seeding was reflected by virtue of the line* and that Davidson was a very popular upset pick. This game had all the makings of something that would require my full attention. Also of note: I was working between 12:30 and 2:30, thus I was relegated to snippets of the game in the lounge and compulsive score checking on my iPhone. The big punishment for my sin, of course, was being in a subdued meeting while Marquette was making one of the most furious comebacks you will ever see.
Marquette was -4 whereas fellow 3 seeds Michigan State and New Mexico were favored by 10 and 11, respectively.
Though I did not watch most of the game I got a good sense of its essence. Once again Marquette struggled making shots and generally could not make any consistent runs against Davidson. From start to finish this game will not go down in the annals of college basketball history as a classic, but come tournament time all people really care about is the ending. That Marquette had one of the most iconic endings in school history is a tad bit aggravating because I did not get the experience the elation of their unlikely victory in real time. This is easier to take because Marquette won, will be playing on Saturday (hooray for not working on weekends!), and most importantly, I learned my lesson to always take work off when the Golden Eagles are playing in the NCAA Tournament. Then again, who's to say there isn't an alternate reality where I took the day off and this created a butterfly effect which led to a Marquette loss? Good luck disproving that theory.
In the reality where we exist the Golden Eagles won on a buzzer beater, but it's really more impressive than that. Trailing by five points with 30 seconds to play against a team that collectively hits 80% of their free throws, Marquette had only one path to victory: hit three point shots. Like a final shot attempt taken while trailing, any miss would have led to certain defeat. They needed to make three consecutive do or die shots, and that's exactly what happened. When you consider the unlikeliness of a bad shooting team like Marquette doing that, you can argue their comeback was one of the most miraculous in Tournament history. Of course, no comeback is complete without a little help from the opposition.
With 10 seconds left De'Mon Brooks opted to forgo a trip to the line in favor of an attempt to win the damn game. After Jamil Wilson's three pulled MU within one, Brooks found himself in custody of the basketball and instead of allowing himself to be fouled, he passed down court to a wide open Nik Cochran. His pass resulted in a turnover, however, which gave a Marquette team suddenly incapable of missing shots a chance to win. The decision to pass the ball was imprudent and allowed Marquette to win the game, but I'm still inclined to defend the move. If the pass is true Cochran dribbles out the clock and the Wildcats win. There was an opportunity for certain victory and I do not fault Brooks recognizing that (especially since Cochran was signalling for the ball). In general I think players and coaches should be more aggressive when a window to certain victory is opened. This just happened to not be one of those windows.
Despite all they've accomplished this season I'm still not convinced the Golden Eagles are actually a good team. Last minute of this game notwithstanding, they are among the worst in the country at hitting threes. They also turn the ball over quite a bit and lack anybody that is exceptionally talented. But they keep on winning and winning. At some point this winning is going to stop. Marquette has gotten slapped around by top echelon teams this season (Florida, Louisville) and barring upsets they are on a collision courts to play Miami and Indiana. A team that squeaks by Davidson is liable to get blown out by the two top seeds, but given Marquette's uncanny ability to just win games I'd like to see the Hurricanes and Hoosiers try. The tournament is all about the ability to survive and advance. Few teams have the moxie to do this as well as Marquette.
Wednesday, March 13, 2013
Thoughts on Carlos Gomez
I'm thrilled that Carlos Gomez is a member of the Milwaukee Brewers. He is a phenomenal center fielder and his speed on the bases causes can wreak havoc on opposing teams. Even better, last season he showed signs of utilizing his full talents by clubbing 19 homers stealing 37 bases in 44 attempts. Of course, I'm not without my reservations on the deal.
3 years, $24 mil seems like a lot for a player with a career .247/.294/.379 slash line. There is also the issue of him not getting more that 500 ABs since 2008. Most of his career has been spent as a platoon player or late-inning defensive replacement.
The verdict: Worst case scenario the Brewers overpaid for a plus defender with excellent speed and some pop at the plate. Best case he'll improve on 2012 over the next three seasons and become a steal. Somewhere in between would make the deal just about on the money.
3 years, $24 mil seems like a lot for a player with a career .247/.294/.379 slash line. There is also the issue of him not getting more that 500 ABs since 2008. Most of his career has been spent as a platoon player or late-inning defensive replacement.
The verdict: Worst case scenario the Brewers overpaid for a plus defender with excellent speed and some pop at the plate. Best case he'll improve on 2012 over the next three seasons and become a steal. Somewhere in between would make the deal just about on the money.
Saturday, April 28, 2012
Game 21: Cardinals 7, Brewers 3
Box Score
My seething hatred of the St. Louis Cardinals and the Brewers' proclivity to lose to them has inspired me to once again fire up this blog. I have a few points going forward before I vent about today's game.
First, some of my posts are going to be very short. Writing about baseball is very difficult because there are a lot of games and many of them are not very interesting. The length of each post will depend on the game, how I reacted to the game, and how much time I have.
Second, I'm going back to the original format because it better suits the demands of the blogging about a baseball team. With that established, let's dive into another Brewers loss to the Cardinals.
There was a point last season where the Brewers could count on the taking at least 2 of 3 against St. Louis any time they played. But since August of last season the Cardinals seemingly have a perfect understanding of how to defeat the Brewers and the ability to consistently execute their game plan. This is evidenced by the Cardinals improving to 4-1 against the Brewers while outscoring them 40-18. I'm at the point where I expect the Brewers to lose every game they play against them.
Today's game was reasonably close. The Brewers had the bases loaded with the game tied at 3-3 in the top of the 6th. Had the roles been reversed St. Louis would have summoned a pinch hitter who would go on to have a 9-pitch at bat that would result in a softly-hit grounder with eyes that would score two runs. But the roles were not reversed, and consequently the Brewers did not get the big hit and the Cardinals took the lead for good in the bottom half of the frame.
With the victory the Cardinals are now 5.0 games up on the Brewers. This is not particularly concerning because it's still April and the Cardinals have some players that are succeeding at an unsustainable rate. For example, look at the ERA of their starters:
Kyle Lohse: 1.62
Jake Westbrook: 1.30
Jaime Garcia: 2.49
Lance Lynn: 1.33
Now, it's possible that this will turn out to be the best rotation of all-time, but I tend to doubt it. There is a regression coming for St. Louis, but it will not do the Brewers much good if they are hopelessly buried when it happens.
Looking ahead I expect the Crew to lose tomorrow and I expect to be extremely frustrated as I watch it happen. Or maybe not. Sooner or later the high leverage hits are going to swing in the Brewers' favor and the Cardinals' domination will end. You'll be able to tell when that happens by the length of my posts.
My seething hatred of the St. Louis Cardinals and the Brewers' proclivity to lose to them has inspired me to once again fire up this blog. I have a few points going forward before I vent about today's game.
First, some of my posts are going to be very short. Writing about baseball is very difficult because there are a lot of games and many of them are not very interesting. The length of each post will depend on the game, how I reacted to the game, and how much time I have.
Second, I'm going back to the original format because it better suits the demands of the blogging about a baseball team. With that established, let's dive into another Brewers loss to the Cardinals.
There was a point last season where the Brewers could count on the taking at least 2 of 3 against St. Louis any time they played. But since August of last season the Cardinals seemingly have a perfect understanding of how to defeat the Brewers and the ability to consistently execute their game plan. This is evidenced by the Cardinals improving to 4-1 against the Brewers while outscoring them 40-18. I'm at the point where I expect the Brewers to lose every game they play against them.
Today's game was reasonably close. The Brewers had the bases loaded with the game tied at 3-3 in the top of the 6th. Had the roles been reversed St. Louis would have summoned a pinch hitter who would go on to have a 9-pitch at bat that would result in a softly-hit grounder with eyes that would score two runs. But the roles were not reversed, and consequently the Brewers did not get the big hit and the Cardinals took the lead for good in the bottom half of the frame.
With the victory the Cardinals are now 5.0 games up on the Brewers. This is not particularly concerning because it's still April and the Cardinals have some players that are succeeding at an unsustainable rate. For example, look at the ERA of their starters:
Kyle Lohse: 1.62
Jake Westbrook: 1.30
Jaime Garcia: 2.49
Lance Lynn: 1.33
Now, it's possible that this will turn out to be the best rotation of all-time, but I tend to doubt it. There is a regression coming for St. Louis, but it will not do the Brewers much good if they are hopelessly buried when it happens.
Looking ahead I expect the Crew to lose tomorrow and I expect to be extremely frustrated as I watch it happen. Or maybe not. Sooner or later the high leverage hits are going to swing in the Brewers' favor and the Cardinals' domination will end. You'll be able to tell when that happens by the length of my posts.
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