Monday, March 25, 2013

Kyle Lohse, 3 years/$33 Million

My first reaction to this signing was very positive. Kyle Lohse hurled 211.0 innings last season and posted a tidy 2.83 ERA. He also limited the long ball (19 home runs allowed) and issued a mere 38 free passes. Furthermore, outside of Yovani Gallardo the Brewers' rotation is a parade of unknowns. Lohse has been a solid innings-eater over the course of his career and the Crew are in desperate need of stability in the rotation. His presence will help Milwaukee win a lot of games and, if it all goes right, contend for the post season.

My second reaction was more skeptical. Lohse has a career ERA of 4.55. Not awful, but certainly not worth $11 million per season. He's also 34 years old and has logged 1973.0 innings in his career, meaning his best years are probably behind him. Is it just me, or did the Brewers find a way to re-sign Jeff Suppan? So how do I really feel about the deal? My true feeling about the deal lies somewhere between, which means I feel this is the Randy Wolf signing all over again. This is a good thing.

Back in 2010 the Crew picked up Randy Wolf on a 3-year/$27 million deal with a team option for a 4th year. Wolf was very good for the Brewers and instrumental in their run to the 2011 NLCS. (He also earns points for being the only Brewer pitcher to shut down the Cardinals in that series.) Granted, Wolf was awful in 2012 and eventually released. Even so, his signing was worthwhile and overall made the Brewers a better team.

Much like the Wolf, Kyle Lohse is a solid pitcher on the back side of his career that looks to have a couple of good years left in him. He's not an ace, nor will he contend for the Cy Young or even an All-Star appearance, but he's gives you innings and provides a much needed anchor behind Gallardo. Should Mike Fiers, Marco Estrada, and Chris Narveson/Wily Peralta manage to be average-ish the Brewers will contend thanks to their powerful offense. This is, of course is assuming the bullpen does not implode again and MLB does not find a reason to suspend Ryan Braun. I prefer not to think about those things for now.

Grade for Signing: B

Friday, March 22, 2013

How about those Golden Eagles?

From 2010-2012 I took a day off for the first round of the NCAA Tournament. I do this because the first two days of the tourney are a magical stretch of basketball that require your full attention. You're not going to get anything done at work anyway, so what kind of sports fan is stupid enough to work for both days? This is a good question.

Between 12:30-2:30pm the 3rd seeded Marquette Golden Eagles were playing the 14th seeded Davidson Wildcats. Just as Marquette was over-seeded as a 3, Davidson was closer to a 11 than a 14. This dissonance in seeding was reflected by virtue of the line* and that Davidson was a very popular upset pick. This game had all the makings of something that would require my full attention. Also of note: I was working between 12:30 and 2:30, thus I was relegated to snippets of the game in the lounge and compulsive score checking on my iPhone. The big punishment for my sin, of course, was being in a subdued meeting while Marquette was making one of the most furious comebacks you will ever see.

Marquette was -4 whereas fellow 3 seeds Michigan State and New Mexico were favored by 10 and 11, respectively.

Though I did not watch most of the game I got a good sense of its essence. Once again Marquette struggled making shots and generally could not make any consistent runs against Davidson. From start to finish this game will not go down in the annals of college basketball history as a classic, but come tournament time all people really care about is the ending. That Marquette had one of the most iconic endings in school history is a tad bit aggravating because I did not get the experience the elation of their unlikely victory in real time. This is easier to take because Marquette won, will be playing on Saturday (hooray for not working on weekends!), and most importantly, I learned my lesson to always take work off when the Golden Eagles are playing in the NCAA Tournament. Then again, who's to say there isn't an alternate reality where I took the day off and this created a butterfly effect which led to a Marquette loss? Good luck disproving that theory.

In the reality where we exist the Golden Eagles won on a buzzer beater, but it's really more impressive than that. Trailing by five points with 30 seconds to play against a team that collectively hits 80% of their free throws, Marquette had only one path to victory: hit three point shots. Like a final shot attempt taken while trailing, any miss would have led to certain defeat. They needed to make three consecutive do or die shots, and that's exactly what happened. When you consider the unlikeliness of a bad shooting team like Marquette doing that, you can argue their comeback was one of the most miraculous in Tournament history. Of course, no comeback is complete without a little help from the opposition.

With 10 seconds left De'Mon Brooks opted to forgo a trip to the line in favor of an attempt to win the damn game. After Jamil Wilson's three pulled MU within one, Brooks found himself in custody of the basketball and instead of allowing himself to be fouled, he passed down court to a wide open Nik Cochran. His pass resulted in a turnover, however, which gave a Marquette team suddenly incapable of missing shots a chance to win. The decision to pass the ball was imprudent and allowed Marquette to win the game, but I'm still inclined to defend the move. If the pass is true Cochran dribbles out the clock and the Wildcats win. There was an opportunity for certain victory and I do not fault Brooks recognizing that (especially since Cochran was signalling for the ball). In general I think players and coaches should be more aggressive when a window to certain victory is opened. This just happened to not be one of those windows.

Despite all they've accomplished this season I'm still not convinced the Golden Eagles are actually a good team. Last minute of this game notwithstanding, they are among the worst in the country at hitting threes. They also turn the ball over quite a bit and lack anybody that is exceptionally talented. But they keep on winning and winning. At some point this winning is going to stop. Marquette has gotten slapped around by top echelon teams this season (Florida, Louisville) and barring upsets they are on a collision courts to play Miami and Indiana. A team that squeaks by Davidson is liable to get blown out by the two top seeds, but given Marquette's uncanny ability to just win games I'd like to see the Hurricanes and Hoosiers try. The tournament is all about the ability to survive and advance. Few teams have the moxie to do this as well as Marquette.

Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Thoughts on Carlos Gomez

I'm thrilled that Carlos Gomez is a member of the Milwaukee Brewers. He is a phenomenal center fielder and his speed on the bases causes can wreak havoc on opposing teams. Even better, last season he showed signs of utilizing his full talents by clubbing 19 homers stealing 37 bases in 44 attempts. Of course, I'm not without my reservations on the deal.

3 years, $24 mil seems like a lot for a player with a career .247/.294/.379 slash line. There is also the issue of him not getting more that 500 ABs since 2008. Most of his career has been spent as a platoon player or late-inning defensive replacement.

The verdict: Worst case scenario the Brewers overpaid for a plus defender with excellent speed and some pop at the plate. Best case he'll improve on 2012 over the next three seasons and become a steal. Somewhere in between would make the deal just about on the money.