Sunday, April 7, 2013

Series Recap: Deflating Sweep Edition

It is never too early to panic. The Brewers are off to the second worst possible start to the season (1-5), but more concerning is how bad they've looked doing it. In terms of hopeless losing, the sweep at the hands of the Diamondbacks was about as bad as it gets.

The two concerns I had going into the seasons were the bullpen and starting pitching. I can now add injuries to that list as Aramis Ramirez is on the DL and Ryan Braun did not play due to neck spasms. I'll get to those in a bit, but for now I will focus on pitching.

John Axford surrendered all of four home runs in 2011; a total he has matched in four innings this season. Furthermore, as we saw today the outs on balls in play are dangerously close to leaving the park or smoked right at someone. He regressed in 2012 and it's clear he has regressed more in 2013. He is no longer the effectively wild flame thrower with a hammer that keeps hitters guessing. Instead he peppers batters with a steady stream of easy-to-read fastballs and hanging curve balls. There is no reason to keep him as the closer and at this point it's hard to justify having him on a Major League roster. He should spend some time in Nashville getting his mechanics worked out. The Brewers are doing him and the team a disservice by not allowing him to get right.

The addition of Kyle Lohse was a great move to bolster the spotty starting rotation. His start on Friday was like manna from Heaven, even if it did not yield a win. Though his late-game pinch hitting skills are lacking, he'll be a fine anchor to Gallardo, whose struggles I do not expect to last. Conversely, the struggles of Mike Fiers seem here to stay. He pitched poorly at the end of last season and in spring training, thus his most recent start is the exact opposite of what I wanted to see. I don't expect much from Fiers, but at this point I'm not confident in his ability to be consistently average. Right handers that top out at 90 make me nervous, and for good reason. That said, he has had success in the show and its very possible he will again.

Struggles of Axford and Fiers aside, the biggest issue emerging is injuries. Hart, Ramirez, and Braun are the three best hitters on the team and tops in the majors at their positions. You win baseball by scoring more runs than your opponents, so not having them in the lineup is simply devastating. One way to mask the pitching woes it by putting a lot of runs on the board, a task not helped with Yuniesky Betancourt or Khris Davis in the lineup. If Braun and Co. do not get healthy soon this will turn into a lost season.

Even though the doomsday scenario for 2013 is seemingly unfolding for the Brewers, I remain optimistic they will finish the season north of .500. Once healthy they still have the top offense in the NL and generally speaking I think their starters and bullpen will be average on the whole. If my math is correct: Excellent offense + slightly below average starting pitching + average bullpen = 83 wins. Of course, this optimism also happens to be heavily reliant on taking at least two of three from the Cubs. Anything less that that will cause me to sound doomsday alarm.

No comments:

Post a Comment