Thursday, September 5, 2013

Hanlon's Razor: A Primer

 Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

-Hanlon's Razor

The conventional wisdom is Wily Peralta intentionally hit Justin Morneau as retaliation for Andrew McCutchen (apparently) admiring a home run just a little too much. If years of watching baseball have taught me one thing it's that pitchers do not like being shown up. In all of sports there are few, if any, better ways to demonstrate ownership of another player than hitting a baseball over a fence hundreds of feet away. People don't like being owned, nor do they like said ownership being emphasized. For this reason Peralta beaned Morneau, or so they say.

Human beings frequently do bad things on purpose. More frequently, however, humans make mistakes. These mistakes are often difficult to fathom and usually have negative consequences, so it's easy to assume the agent is acting maliciously. But what if the act is a simple error? In the case of the recent Pirates-Brewers feud, how do we know Peralta tried to hit Morneau? The alleged villain denied intent and it's impossible to know exactly what he was thinking. Fortunately there is evidence to work with, and it suggests Hanlon's Razor was at work.

Wily Peralta has a 4.51 ERA, 1.431 WHIP, and 3.4 BB/9. In other words, he is not Greg Maddux. If it all goes right one day Peralta will be known for his pinpoint control, but that day is not today. (Nor was it Wednesday.) Given our inability to read minds and the evidence at hand, I'm inclined to believe Peralta intended to pitch Morneau up and in, but he missed his spot because he's not very good at locating baseballs. This does not make Peralta stupid, keep in mind incompetence is interchangeable in Hanlon's Razor.

In my experience life is more relaxing when you attribute bad actions to basic human fallibility. This might make you naive and it might cause you to miss out on compelling conspiracy theories, but it saves you a lot of stress in the process. More importantly, you're usually right.

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