Saturday, April 30, 2011

Game Twenty Six: Astros 2, Brewers 1

Box Score

There is never one thing that causes a team to win or lose a baseball game. There are events that influence the outcome more than others, but it's never just one thing.

The primary culprit in the Brewers' loss tonight was Wandy Rodriguez. He was in top form as evidenced by going 8 innings while allowing no runs or walks. With that said, the Brewers certainly helped themselves lose the game.

First there was Carlos Gomez. Gomez hit a double in the top of the 8th with the Brewers down 1-0, nobody one, and two away. Despite being extremely fast, already in scoring positing, and having Ryan Braun on deck, Gomez was thinking triple for reasons that defy logic. Needless to say, he was called out at third (though according to replay he might have been safe).

Then there was Kameron Loe. After two quick outs he issued two walks and surrendered the game-winning single to Jason Bourgeois. I know this was a tied game and one run would beat you, but you have to throw strikes. I would rather lose on a home run or a back-to-back-to-back hits than two walks and one hit. Jeepers.

Other thoughts:

-The game-tying home run by Prince Fielder was awesome. While it's a bummer it was on vain, as a baseball fan it was awesome. A joy of sports is watching elite players in do-or-die situations. This will also make me feel better in the future as this is not the last time Fielder will have a chance to tie or win a game.

-Building on the last point, this was the second consecutive blown save Brandon Lyon had against Milwaukee. Both were directly caused by Fielder.

-I do not expect Randy Wolf to keep pitching this well, but it's pretty clear he's going to have a very good season. Take a look at his past 3 seasons:

2010: 215.2 IP, 4.17 ERA
2009: 214.1 IP, 3.23 ERA
2008: 190.1 IP, 4.30 ERA

Cy Young caliber? No. Better than Suppan, Looper, Parra, Bush, and Davis? That's not even a question.

-The Brewers finished April with a 13-12 record. Though I feel they should have a better record (probably because I want to believe they are super-awesome and going to win the World Series), I feel they're right around where they should be. Here's to a successful May.

Friday, April 29, 2011

Game Twenty Five: Brewers 5, Astros 0

Box Score

As a Brewers fan I am very familiar with games similar to the one played tonight...I'm just not used to watching the Brewers win them.

 The Crew jumped out to an early lead, tacked on insurance runs thanks to timely hitting, and prevented the Astros from assembling anything that could have been mistaken as a rally. It was a very enjoyable game to watch.

Other thoughts:

-Corey Hart looked awful in his second at bat against Brett Myers. It reminded me of his miserable second half of the 2008 season. That said, I was encouraged by his F8 in the top of the 8th. In any other park that's a home run, but not in the fun-house formerly known as Enron Field.

-Prince Fielder can hit baseballs a long, long distance.

-The Brewers recorded their 5th shutout of the season. Last season they had 7. And this is without Greinke and with Gallardo slumping.

-I tip my cap to Yuniesky Betancourt. He's on a 9-game hitting streak and tonight had a solo home run with 2(!) walks.

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Game Twenty Three: Reds 7. Brewers 6

Box Score

The time has come to be worried about Yovani Gallardo. Today he allowed 13 base runners, 6 ER, and saw his ERA rise to a tidy 5.70. It seems like he forgot how to pitch after the Atlanta game. For a team with playoff aspirations, this is not good news. Fortunately Greinke will be back soon to pick up Gallardo's slack.

Quick thoughts on nothing in particular:

-It's nice to have Hart back. The Brewers now have 5 players in their everyday lineup with 25+ HR potential. I'm excited to see what the fully healthy lineup can do.

-Axford looked sharp again. I would have liked to see him pitch the top of the 10th. Last year Axford was very valuable in pitching multiple innings, and after a strong 9th he seemed good to go another frame.

-The Brewers need help in the middle relief department. With Takashi Saito scheduled to pitch a rehab assignment tomorrow in Nashville and LaTroy Hawkins coming back, it appears as if help is on the way.

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Game Twenty Two: Brewers 3, Reds 2

Box Score

So the Brewers are capable of bearing the Reds after all!

As I wrote earlier, what I like about this pitching staff is that every starter is capable of twirling a gem. The Brewers needed some innings after Narveson's short outing and they got one from Marco Estrada. Perhaps more importantly, John Axford had a clean 9th and needed only 13 pitches to finish the game. I'm going to give into temptation and write: where was that on Opening Day?

All things considered it was a nice win. Let's hope for a series win tomorrow and some mojo going into the off-day.

Monday, April 25, 2011

Game Twenty Two: Reds 9, Brewers 5

Box Score

Jeepers creepers. I'm tempted to take back every nice thing I've written about Chris Narveson, but considering the Reds own the Brewers I'll give him a pass. For those of you keeping score at home, Cincinnati has won 19 of their last 22 against Milwaukee. We're on the brink of this rivalry becoming the NL Central's version of the Harlem Globetrotters and Washington Generals.

Not much to say about the game. You tend to lose when you give up 7 runs in the first three innings and tonight was no exception. So instead of writing about the game I have a quick thought on the Ryan Braun extension.

There are some voices of dissent around the extension. You can read some counterpoints here and here. The gist of the dissent is as follows: Ryan Braun will not be a free agent until after 2015, so why extend him now? Extending him now exposes you to the risk of injury. If Braun's body breaks down between now and 2015, you're stuck with an albatross of a contract. So why take the risk?

My counter: Braun approached the Brewers with the idea of an extension; that's why. For the Brewers to respond by essentially saying "Let's talk about this in 2014" would make it easier to re-sign Braun and it would not help the Brewers sign/re-sign other players. This is a much greater risk than injury. Even if this extension turns out to be a total disaster, I would rather the Brewers' management be able to work with players rather than estrange them to the point where they can't wait to leave.

Sunday, April 24, 2011

Game Twenty One: Brewers 4, Astros 1

Box Score

The Jeff Suppan signing will go down as one of the worst free agent signings in Milwaukee Brewers history. The Randy Wolf signing will not.

Wolf has settled in nicely after a rough start to the season and is continuing his success from the second half of last year. Though he is not the type of pitcher than can propel you into the playoffs (e.g. CC Sabathia), pitchers like Randy Wolf help you make the playoffs. You know you have a good staff when you're #4 starter can go 8 innings, only give up one run, and not make you wonder if you've just witnessed a miracle.

Another thing that helps you make the playoffs: a good closer. I really like what I saw from John Axford today. He was keeping his fastball down and controlling his breaking pitch very well. The one hit he gave up was a chopper up the middle, but even that is a good sign. I can live with a blown save courtesy of weak singles. Blown saves caused by walks and line drives? Not so much.

I commend the Brewers from promptly redeeming themselves after last night. And kudos to Prince Fielder for hitting a triple. I hope those in attendance save their ticket stubs to prove they saw one of the rarest plays in all of baseball.

Game Twenty: Astros 9, Brewers 6

Box Score

I did not get to watch most of the game today. After watching the highlights, that may have been a good thing.

What happened in the bottom of the 8th was atrocious. Let's ignore the fact that it should have been a triple play and that every out would have been caused by bad base running. When you are down by one, have a runner on third, and nobody out, it is very important that the runner on third scores. I could write more, but I would rather forget that play ever happened.

The bottom of the 9th was somewhat better. The RBI double that scored Braun and tied the game was as good as it gets. The most exciting play in baseball (and arguably all of sports) is a play at the plate and tonight you saw why. Unfortunately the Brewers were unable to plate the winning run and lost in extras.

This was a game the Brewers had several chances to win. Their success capitalizing on these chances ranged from 'close but no cigar' to 'spectacular failure.' It's no surprise the result was a loss, and a frustrating one at that.

Saturday, April 23, 2011

Game Nineteen: Brewers 14, Astros 7

Box Score

Today's recap is going to come in bullet-point form:

It was awesome to see Ryan Braun greeted with standing ovations. It was just as cool to see him celebrate his contract extension by going 3-4 and hitting an absolute rocket of a home run. As for the contract, I like it. When you couple this extension with the contract he signed in 2008, Braun essentially has a 10-year, $145 million dollar deal. For a player of his talent, this is more than reasonable. Also, Braun's role as an ambassador to Milwaukee cannot be overlooked. How often do you see a hall of fame talent make this correct observation about Milwaukee?: 



"It's truly special to me to come to work here every day, and I'm excited about being able to do that for the next 10 years. Thanks to the fans - that was the single biggest reason I wanted to stay here. To be in one of the smallest media markets in baseball and to have 3 million people to come watch us every year is incredibly special.
"The more time we spend in other cities, the more we recognize how special it is here. The fans are the single biggest factor. I'm excited, man, truly excited to be able to say I'm a Milwaukee Brewer from this point forward."
Coming in to the season I did not expect Yovani Gallardo to be the weak link of the rotation. Aside from his, shut out vs. Atlanta, that is exactly what he's been. If you want additional cause for concern, Gallardo had a 6.28 ERA from July 27 on last season. Of course, over the same time frame his BABIP (Batting average on balls in play) was .383. This season it's .323. That tends to be around .300 for any pitcher, no matter how good they are, so I am hopeful that as Gallardo's BABIP regresses to the mean his outings will improve.
Carlos Gomez is not a smart baseball player. This is not the first or last time I will say this, but it's true. I beginning to wonder if running the bases makes him nervous, which makes it harder for him to think, which leads him to make stupid base running errors. I suppose anything is possible. 
Last point: the Brewers offense looked great for the second time in three games. I think this is a sign of things to come. 

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Game Eighteen: Phillies 4, Brewers 3

Box Score 

Through five innings it looked as if the Brewers were on their way to a sweep. Narveson was cruising through the Phillies lineup and the Brewers' offense was able to scratch out three runs on eight hits off of Cliff Lee. Unfortunately the Brewers were once again victimized by a three-run homer, this time in the bottom of the 6th. The Phillies later got the lead for good thanks to a solo home run by Shane Victorino in the bottom of the 8th.

A win would have been nice for several reasons, on of which being that it's always nice to head into an off-day with the glow of a victory. However, I am not too upset about this loss. It was not a devastating defeat (like Opening Day) and the Brewers still had a 4-4 road trip. Overall I am encouraged by the last three games.

On a side note, today Yahoo! Sports noted that the Brewers starters currently lead the NL with a 2.99 ERA. I expect the ERA to rise, but the success of the starters is not a fluke. Marcum, Gallardo, Wolf, and Narveson are all good pitchers. Furthermore, every starter the Brewers have (Greinke included) is capable putting together a stretch of dominance. This means every starter is a potential stopper, thus I do not expect the Brewers to have many long losing streaks. In fact, I will go a step further and say that at some point this season the Brewers will put a win streak together that will get Wisconsinites thinking about free burgers from George Webb.

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Game Seventeen: Brewers 9, Phillies 0

Box Score

The Brewers always seem to have better offensive production versus great pitchers than pitchers with ERAs north of 6.00 (or Livan Hernandez). Is this true? Probably not (except with Hernandez). However, the game tonight sure helped the perception that the Brewers bats are the best against the best.

Roy Halladay was battered to the tune of 6 ER and 10 hits in 6.2 IP. Meanwhile Randy Wolf gave the Brewers another solid start (and ate innings to boot), Ryan Braun continued to rake, and Casey McGehee showed some power that has been absent so far this season. Regardless of what happens tomorrow the Brewers will have had a good road trip. Considering they were swept by the Nationals, this is an impressive feat.

Tomorrow the Brewers go for the sweep. Raise your hand if you thought they'd be doing that.

Monday, April 18, 2011

Game Sixteen: Brewers 6, Phillies 3

Box Score

You don't see games like this too often.

I did not have much fun watching this game. In fact, after Axford blew the save and the Phillies had a runner on second with one out I decided to turn off the game and take a break from the Brewers for a while. I thought about avoiding the next few games and figuring out how to take the Brewers a little less seriously. About five minutes later I decided to turn the game back on to, you know, see what was happening.

Much to my surprise, Axford finished the 9th and the bullpen was able to stave off the Phillies until the Brewers scored three in the top of the 12th. Presumably because the baseball gods don't like making things easy on the Brewers, the Phillies brought the tying run to the plate (thanks in part to a dribbler that hit the cuff of the infield grass and scooted past Betancourt) in the form of Ryan Howard. But Brandon Kintzler shut the door and preserved a much needed victory.

Other thoughts on the game:

-The performance of Axford is problematic. He threw 24 pitches in the 9th and only 9 for strikes. The next clean inning he has will be his first of 2011. Though there is a 0% chance of this happening soon, I think a brief stint in AAA would be good for him. He needs to sharpen up and save situations are not the place to do it.

-An huge appeal of professional sports is that anybody is capable of greatness. Though Yuniesky Betancourt is a terrible major league player, the 1-6-4 double play in the bottom of the 7th was one of the best defensive plays I've ever seen. You can watch it here.

-Carlos Gomez is very fast and excellent in center field. While he is terrible at the plate, he's worth having on the roster for defensive and pinch-running purposes. At least for now.

It's nice to be rid of the bad taste left by weekend sweep, even it took the equivalent of a bottle of cough syrup. Now let us never speak of this game ever again.

Sunday, April 17, 2011

Game Fourteen: Nationals 8, Brewers 4; Game Fifteen: Nationals 5, Brewers 1

Game 1 Box Score
Game 2 Box Score

Earl Weaver famously said "The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers." The Nationals proved this in the first game when a strong performance by Jason Marquis and three-run homers from Danny Espinosa and Ivan Rodriguez led to an 8-4 victory.

In the second game the Brewers were done in by the 74-year old Livan Hernandez and his 84-MPH fastball. While Hernandez is a fine pitcher (4.38 career ERA), I always expect the Brewers to mercilessly crush his pitches. Instead I am treated to a steady stream of pop-up and weak grounders, and that really gets on my nerves.

By getting swept in a doubleheader the Brewers accomplished the rare feat of going from over .500 to under .500 in the same day. As a reward the Brewers get to travel to Phildelphia to face Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and the rest of the potent Phillies lineup. Naturally I am convinced the Brewers will get swept, fall back to four games under .500, and go on to have a horrible season. Of course, before getting swept by the Nationals I was thinking about playoff match-ups, so take my reactions for what they're worth. That said, the Brewers can do two things to be more consistent and thus help my sanity.

First, I do not like Carlos Gomez batting second. Whether or not this is because of Corey Hart being hurt is irrelevant: there is no good reason to have a batter with a career .292 OPB hitting in front of Braun and Fielder. Worse yet, batting second means more at bats, which means more outs. I'm fine having him bat 8th or even 9th , but not 2nd.

Second, the Brewers really, really, really need to get rid of Betancourt. Much like Gomez, he's a black hole in the lineup. As I wrote on Friday, anybody is better than Betancourt.

And I could add one more thing: put a clause on Greinke's contract that he can't play basketball. He's making his first rehab start on Tuesday and is scheduled to return on May 4th. When he returns (along with Hart) I think we'll get to see just how good the Brewers are. Until then, just avoid long losing streaks, please.



Friday, April 15, 2011

Game Thirteen: Nationals 4, Brewers 3

Box Score

Bill Parcells once said that "You are what your record says you are." Taking the essence of this quote and applying it to baseball, you are what your baseball-reference page says you are. In the case if Yuniesky Betancourt, it says that you're not a good baseball player.

There are few major league baseball players worse than Yuni Betancourt, and an argument can be made that he is the worst player in the majors. He gets on base at a .296 clip, hits for little power, has poor range at shortstop, and as we saw tonight, he does not have a good throwing arm. The throwing error he made in the bottom of the 10th occurred because Betancourt is a bad player and bad players make bad plays. The plays  often happen with great frequency, which increases the likelihood they will occur at inopportune times. The Brewers need to cut Betancourt and replace him with literally anyone that's available. The sooner, the better.

Moving on...

Generally speaking, baserunning outs are the worst outs to make. With that said, I support Carlos Gomez's failed attempt to stretch his game-tying RBI, two-out single into double in the top of the 9th. Though Ryan Braun was on deck, you have to figure that with a runner on first the Nationals would configure their defense against doubles. Thus, the Brewers would likely need two more hits to score the go-ahead run. Furthermore, it was not good hittin' weather, so the prospect of a home run was all but out of the question. And let's not forget that it took an incredible throw from Rick Ankiel to nail Gomez. It was the type of risk you need to take when you are on the road and facing extra-innings.

Speaking of Rick Ankiel, consider this: He started as a pitcher but disappeared from the majors due to extreme control issues. He then remade himself as a outfielder and now has one of the strongest, most insanely accurate arms you will ever see. How is it possible for someone to go from having such control issues  to making throws like this?

Anyway, I don't have much to say about the game tonight. It was a game that was there for the taking, but the Brewers could not capitalize. It happens. On the bright side, Narveson had a decent start and I am really liking what I see from the bullpen. This is one of those games where I'm bummed that they lost, but I saw enough positive things to make me feel good about the Brewers as a team. This is not a bad feeling to have.

Thursday, April 14, 2011

Game Twelve: Brewers 4, Pirates 1

Box Score

On September 18, 2008 the Milwaukee Brewers were in full-fledged desperation mode. They fired Ned Yost a few days earlier and were on the brink of a horrible collapse. But on this day it looked as if the Brewers were on their way to a turnaround. They had the Cubs down to their final out, down four runs, and nobody was on base. Somehow, the Brewers lost this game. It was horrible.

The Brewers recovered, had magical week featuring three dramatic game-winning home runs, and made the playoffs. But that loss to the Cubs will stick with me forever. If you watched tonight's game, you'd understand why.

The Brewers were cruising along until the bottom of the 9th when John Axford came in to finish the game with a 4-0 lead. Two walks and a single later, the Pirates had the bases loaded with two outs. The game could be tied with one swing of the bat, or even worse, won with two swings. Fortunately the Axford was able to harness the power of facial hair and strike out Josh Rodriguez to end the game, but I was reminded too much of 9/18/2008 for my liking.

More thoughts on tonight:

-Offensively this was a boring game. Pitching-wise it was much better. I love watching soft-tossing lefties carve up opposing line-ups, and Randy Wolf did just that. 6.2 IP 3 H, and 10 Ks is not too shabby. I liked the Wolf signing when it happened, I liked if after last season, and I still like it now. He is a good pitcher.

-Nyjer Morgan is having a remarkable start to the season. Not so much in terms of re-inventing baseball, but every time he plays something interesting happens. Tonight is was an RBI double that would have been a triple if he didn't, you know, fall down rounding second. It was good to see him laughing afterwards. The video of his positive reaction should be used by little league coaches to illustrate how failure can be funny. That said, an additional run would have made us all feel more comfortable in the bottom of the 9th.

-Axford needs to start having clean innings. He has allowed a base runner to reach in every appearance; arecipe for disaster with a closers. Tonight he walked two batters with a 4-run lead; something that should not happen.

Next Up: a nice slate of contenders (The Phillies and Reds) and also-rans (The Nationals and Astros). This is a good chance for the Brewers to improve their record and show how good they really are.

Finally, since 2007 the Brewers are 46-17 versus Pittsburgh. Not bad at all.

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Game Eleven: Brewers 6, Pirates 0

Box Score

The first hit of tonight's game did not occur until the bottom of the 5th inning. At this point Shawn Marcum and Kevin Correia had collectively logged 9 innings, so in a way the 8,755 fans in attendance got to see a no-hitter. To put it more accurately, nothing of interest happened during the first half of the game. The good news is that when things did happen, they favored the Brewers.

Marcum had another sharp start, Fielder drove in some runs, and Nyjer Morgan is continued his quest to become a fan favorite by knocking the ball lose at home plate during the 7th. Now that the Brewers have won  6 of 7 I would like to declare them contenders in the NL Central.

Quick though not totally related to tonight's game:

1) Prince Fielder's best seasons have come in odd-numbered years. Hopefully that continues for 2011. Oh, and here's proof:

2006: .271/.347/.483, 28 HR
2007: .288/.395/.618, 50 HR
2008: .276/.372/.507, 34 HR
2009: .299/.412/.602, 46 HR
2010: .261/.401/.471, 32 HR

Monday, April 11, 2011

Game Ten: Brewers 6, Cubs 5

Box Score

I wrote yesterday that I enjoy watching the Brewers dominate the Cubs. A victory like this is a close second.

It was not the cleanest game you will ever see, but the excitement in the bottom of the 8th and top of the 9th is hard to match. First you had free-swinging Yuniesky Betancourt overcoming an 0-2 count to draw a walk. After he was sacrificed to second and George Kottaras struck out, Casey McGehee was called on to pinch hit. McGehee disregarded his .206/.243/.235 batting line to drive and hit the game winning home run. This is why despite the odds, it's hard to turn away from a baseball game.

I fully expected Betancourt to strike out. He walked instead. I fully expected McGehee to swing at the first pitch and hit a weak ground ball. He won the game instead. And then the parade of the unlikely kept rolling.

The Cubs made things interesting in the top of the 9th when Marlon Byrd led off with a single and Aramis Ramirez came to the plate. What happened next? George Kottaras, who threw out only 4 of 48 base-stealers last season, gunned down Byrd as he attempted to steal second. Axford then struck out Ramirez coxed a lazy fly to right from Carlos Pena to seal the victory.

It was an exciting and unlikely sequence of events. Best of all: it happened against the Cubs.

Saturday, April 9, 2011

Game Nine: Brewers 6, Cubs 0

Box Score

Now that's more like it! When the Brewers play the Cubs I do not want to see a victory; I want to see total domination. This is especially true at Miller Park. I want all of the Cubs fans to drive to Milwaukee, spend their money, watch their team lose, and go home. Cubs fans are the worst.

The star of the game was Mr Chris Narveson. I think it's pretty clear that he should stay in the rotation when Greinke comes back. Back of the rotation starters as good as Narveson are rare. As he demonstrated in tonight with 9 Ks in 7 IP, he can retire batters without the batter putting the ball in play. It also means that he has good stuff, so when the ball is put into play you are not dealing with a cavalcade of rocket-balls. Narveson has his flaws, but he's much better than Jeff Suppan or Braden Looper.

Game Eight: Cubs 7, Brewers 4

Box Score

I have a very complicated formula to describe what it's like to lose to the Cubs:

1 loss to the Cubs = 5 losses to anyone else

The game today was a pretty standard loss, thus I do not have much to say about the game itself. However, something happened today that is worth discussing.

Randy Wolf had a so-called quality start because he pitched 6 innings and surrendered only 2 earned runs. Though allowed the Cubs to hit a 2-run and 3-run home run off him, only one of those runs was earned due to an error by Rickie Weeks. In theory the 3-run homer should not have been hit because the inning should have been over. In theory. The lesson here is that ERA is not always the best way to evaluate pitchers (especially relief pitchers). You are better off looking at a pitcher's K/9, BB/9, HR/9, or FIP (fielding independent pitching) which combines all three. This way you get a better idea of how well a pitcher controls what he has the most control over, which is a better for evaluation.

In my "Other than that Mrs Lincoln, how was the play?" thought of the day, Randy Wolf looked good outside of the 4th inning. His curve was good and he gave the Brewers six innings of work. A pitcher can still help his team despite giving up runs if he can eat some innings. Nine out of ten members of the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers agree.

Thursday, April 7, 2011

Game Seven: Brewers 4, Braves 2

Box Score

Well this is a most encouraging events. In the span of one week I've gone from wondering if the Brewers would win a game to thinking about the playoffs...and it's only April 7th.

Shawn Marcum's start was encouraging, and after the Opening Day disaster, Axford is looking very solid. I also really like what the Brewers have been getting from Kameron Loe. Barring injuries, the Brewers will have a pitching staff as good as any as they've ever had. Even though the Brewers once a had a pitching staff featuring the immortal likes of Matt Kinney, Wayne Franklin, Ruben Quevedo, and Glendon Rusch, that's still saying something.

What the Brewers need to start doing, however, is get hits with runners in scoring position. The Brewers had the bases loaded with nobody out in the bottom of the 7th and, even though a run was scored, failed to get a hit. It makes my life a lot better when the Brewers score runs in these situations. Today is a perfect example as to why.

I follow the Brewers at work, usually using the gamecast on ESPN.com. When the Brewers are ahead by a lot of runs I have one more thing to feel good about and one less thing to worry about. It's not so much that I want the Brewers to hit with runners in scoring position, it's that I need them to. A happy employee is a productive employee. By scoring runs the Brewers can give me a boost to help me through the daily grind.

So please, Casey McGehee, don't ground into 4-2-3 double plays.

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

Game Six: Brewers 5, Braves 4

Box Score

To quote John Candy: "And the Brewers have their longest win streak of the season...two!"

Marco Estrada had a serviceable start, Prince Fielder drove in some runs, and John Axford worked around a lead off walk to seal the win. See? Winning baseball game is easy!

There has been a lot of hype around Greinke and Marcum, and rightfully so: they give the Brewers legitimate chance to make the playoffs. But the Brewers' ace in the hole, so to speak, is the back of the rotation.

Back in 2006 Jeff Sackmann of the Hardball Times examined the average ERA for each spot of the rotation. Based on data from 2006 he found the average #5 starter in the NL had an ERA of 6.26. I expect the ERAs of Narveson and Estrada to hover around 5, which in context would be quite good.

One last point: Carlos Gomez drives me crazy. The play he made to nail Chipper Jones at the plate was incredible. It demonstrated why good defense in baseball is so fun to watch. But, and this is important, the man needs to get his OBP in the .330-.340 range. His speed is a huge asset, as shown here, but if his OBP is sub .300 his speed does not matter.

Enough griping. Let's see if the Brewers can get the series win tomorrow. I look forward to seeing how Marcum fares in his second start.

Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Game Five: Brewers 1, Braves 0

The Brewers needed Yovani Gallardo to be the stopper tonight against Atlanta. He responded by essentially winning the game by himself.

Gallardo held the Braves to two hits and scored the Brewers only run in tonight's 1-0 pitchers duel. He was spotting his fastball well and his curveball was as good as you will ever see it. I was also encouraged by how economical Gallardo was. If he can avoid high-pitch innings he can flat-out dominate, as we saw tonight. And I would not be opposed to Roenicke batting him 7th. That guy and rake.

Unfortunately the offense, particularly Prince Fielder, continued to sputter. Fielder was 0-3 with runners in scoring position (RISP), including the bottom of the 8th when he failed to plate a runner at third with nobody out. Now, it's possible that Fielder really wants to stay in Milwaukee so he's trying to play bad and depress his market value, but that's probably not the case. In the meantime he needs to start driving in runs. Without his career .279/.385/.533 career line the Brewers are going to have one hell of a time making the playoffs.

Everything else aside, a win is a win. Let's hope the lifts the pressure on the offense and tomorrow we'll get to watch more than one Brewer cross home plate.

Monday, April 4, 2011

Game Four: Braves 2, Brewers 1

The Brewers came into the 2011 season with hopes of making the playoffs. Now that they're 0-4 all I can think of is this rant from Jim Mora: 


There is not much more that needs to be said about the Brewers struggles. I remain concerned that the Brewers will dig themselves into a Marianas Trench-sized hole, but I do have a shred of faith.

Last season the Brewers were not very good. They were managed by the lifeless Ken Macha, victimized by Father Time catching up to Trevor Hoffman, and had only one starting pitcher that had an above average season. Despite all that they finished with a bad, but not horrible, 77 wins. 

The 2011 team still has Rickie Weeks, Ryan Braun, Casey McGehee, Prince Fielder, and (hopefully soon) Corey Hart. With the addition of a manager that has a pulse, Shawn Marcum, and (one of these days) Zack Greinke, even I have to believe the Brewers will be better.

Back to today's game: it was another stinker. No sustained offense and blown lead late.  I'm tempted to let this get me down, but the only way to stay sane is to focus on the positives...as few as they may be.

1) Rickie Weeks is a monster. If he can stay off the DL he is a top-5 second basemen.

2) Chris Narveson pitched really well today. He is a very solid 4/5 starting pitcher that will help the Brewers quite a bit by eating innings and being occasionally dominant. Back of the rotation guys like Narveson are hard to come by.

Bold Prediction: The Brewers offense explodes tomorrow, Yo is on top of his game, and the Crew wins 9-2. I may be wrong, but I doubt it. 


Game Three: Reds 12, Brewers 3

Bad teams tend to lose games in three ways:
 
1) By relinquishing leadsin the 7th inning or later
 
2) By getting behind a sizable-but-not-insurmountable amount early and never
mounting any sort of comeback
 
3) By getting blown out
 
The Brewers "accomplished" #1 and #2 to start the season and pulled an ol' fashion #3 today. Randy Wolf was battered to the tune of 10 hits and 4 ER in 4.0 IP. With the exception of booming home runs by Rickie Weeks and Ryan Braun, the Brewers' offense was as inneffective as the pitching. There is no other way to put it: The Brewers looked like a bad team this weekend.
 
I do not believe the Brewers are a bad team. I believe they will have several stretches of good baseball this summer that will make us forget about their disasterous start. However, the Brewers are not good enough to spot the Reds a three game lead to start the season.
 
Let's hope Miller Park inject them with the mojo they need.

Saturday, April 2, 2011

Game Two: Reds 4, Brewers 2

The Brewers have started the season by demonstrating how following a baseball team can be annoying.

The Reds scored four runs in the first two innings and never looked back. The Brewers got the tying run to the plate in the top of the 9th, but they never gave any sort of serious indication they were going to win the game. Sure, they had a punchers chance in the top of the 9th, but did you really think Erick Almonte was going to come through? Yuck. Hopefully tomorrow's game will be have more excitement, or should I say, and amount of excitement greater than zero.

A few thoughts more thoughts on the game:

1) Shawn Marcum did not have a good start, however, he gave plenty of reason for optimism. He struck out 7 batters in 4.2 innings and his change-up made some Reds hitters look foolish. I look forward to watching him when he's in the zone.

2) With one on, two down, and two gone in the 9th the Brewers sent Erick Almonte to the plate as their last hope. I would have felt better about Corey Hart hitting in that situation than someone with only 105 ML ABs.

3) It's never too early to be concerned. There are worse places to be than 2 games back of first with 160 to play, but, as I will write 1000 times this season, these are the Brewers here. I've had too much experience with the Brewers (and as long as we're talking Milwaukee sports, the Bucks) getting my hopes up and failing to deliver. Sometimes it's in spectacular fashion and sometimes it's like a sad trombone. Let's face it: it's a lot more fun to go down in flames. At least that way your August and September is filled with meaningful games.