Thursday, June 16, 2011

Game Seventy: Cubs 12, Brewers 7

Box Score

Once again, I cannot emphasize how much I dislike watching the Brewers play the Cubs.

Today's game was a hot mess of a baseball game. Blown leads, fielding errors, base running errors, wild pitches, passed balls, home runs allow; this game had it all. But again, this type of game and series will happen. There is no need to call for the firing of anybody or demand any wholesale change (except getting rid of Betancourt). Keep in mind that despite losing 3 of 4 to the Cubs, the Brewers are still in first place (Thanks, Nationals!). It's a long, long season.

The season will become more enjoyable as soon as Zack Greinke starts making sense. He's struck out 70 batters and walked only 9 in 53.1 innings. He's capable of frequently throwing pitches that batters cannot hit/do not expect and he does not beat himself with walks. Yet his ERA is 5.23. He consistently does things that you expect from dominant pitchers, yet he has not been dominating.

From what I've seen, and stats back this up, the problem is that opposing batters are hitting his pitches hard when they make contact. Coming into today 25.8% of all balls put in play of Greinke have been line drives. His career average is 20.6%. For a point of reference, the LD% off the immortal Jeff Suppan is 21.3%. I think this trend is too fluky to continue. There's most likely an issue with the sequence of his pitches and a healthy helping of bad luck that's factoring into Greinke's current LD%. There will be a regression to the mean soon. Unless, or course, there isn't.

Coming up: A series with Boston! I'm cautiously optimistic. The Brewers face John Lackey, Jon Lester, and Tim Wakefield, so I expect them to score some runs. Though the Red Sox have a ridiculous lineup, Marcum, Wolf, and Gallardo are more than capable of keeping them in check. At the very least the Brewers will have a chance to demonstrate how good they are. Then again, after the series with the Cubs, I'm not sure that's a good thing.

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